NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets available in the stat leader markets.
NFL 2017: Most Passing Yards
Out of the 32 quarterbacks in the National Football League, there’s only five or six elite players with a legitimate shot of leading the league in passing yards.
The usual suspects, Brees (3/1), Brady (5/1), Ryan (15/2) and Rodgers (11/1) lead the way in the betting market, whilst outsiders Matthew Stafford (25/1) and Kirk Cousins (14/1), look decent each-way value bets.
Whilst Ryan is still adapting to a new offensive co-ordinator, Brady losing one of his key weapons in Julian Edelman and Rodgers having never finished higher than fourth in passing yard leaders and more renowned for his number of passing touchdowns, I’m sticking with the bookies favourite on this one.
Drew Brees led the league in passing yards last season, finishing 264 yards ahead of Matt Ryan and his numbers don’t lie. He attempted 673 passes (first), completed 471 (first) of those, with a completion percentage of 70.0% (first) and with his usage apparently set to remain at the same level as last year in a pass heavy system Sean Payton runs, its hard to see anyone out passing the winner of this award for five of the past seven seasons.
He may have lost the explosiveness of Brandin Cooks, but he’s been given another deep threat receiver in free agent addition Ted Ginn Jr, to go along with rookie standout Michael Thomas, Willie Snead and Coby Fleener.
Brees still has plenty of talent around him.
NFL 2017: Most Receiving Yards
Possibly the most open market in the season-long stat leader betting, the elite receivers will always sit atop the bookies pre season favourites.
TY Hilton, who led the league in receiving last year, is a best price 16/1 to repeat this year. But with issues still remaining over the health of Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, it’s not guaranteed he will see the amount of targets he did last year.
Whilst favourites Antonio Brown and Julio Jones, both 7/2, could easily walk away with in this market baring injury, Odell Beckham is far too big of a price at 10/1 considering his stature as one of the NFL’s most explosive receivers.
Finishing only second to Mike Evans (173) in targets last year (169), Beckham has progressively improved up the year-end rankings since entering the league in 2014.
He’s finished 10th, fifth & third in yardage over the past three seasons, and it seemingly is just a matter of time before he finishes a top those rankings come seasons end.
Some may look at the Giants addition of Brandon Marshall this offseason potentially affecting OBJ’s number of targets, but with the Giants continuing struggles in the running game, Beckham should still get the ball thrown his way an awful lot this year.
Mike Evans is another player who’s worthy of an each-way bet, priced at 12/1, the 6ft 5 receiver has turned into an elite talent.
Couple that with the offseason addition DeSean Jackson maybe taking opposing defences attention away from Evans, he might be in for a potentially huge year, and given his height and threat in the red zone, 8/1 to have the most receiving touchdowns also looks a good bet too.
NFL 2017: Most Rushing Yards
With Ezekiel Elliot’s six game suspension hanging over him, I wont waste too much time handing out my prediction for this award.
Despite a four-game suspension this time last year, Le’Veon Bell was still able to produce 1,268 rushing yards last year, finishing fifth in the rankings. Just imagine what he’s able to do in a full 16 game regular season.
Now his price may have shortened over recent months, but at 3/1 he still remains the best bet in my view, with the unique running style he possesses.
However, if you’re a fan of value and are looking for an outsider each way bet, I like the potential of LA Rams running back Todd Gurley to have a bounce back year under new head coach Sean McVay.
Priced at 10/1, the former rookie of the year finished third in rushing back in 2015, and the Rams may be looking to utilise their running game, given their struggles at the quarterback position
Best Bets
NFL 2017 – Drew Brees Most Passing Yards (3/1 SkyBet)
NFL 2017 – Aaron Rodgers Most Passing Touchdowns (4/1 10Bet)
NFL 2017 – Odell Beckham Most Receiving Yards (10/1 Betfred)
NFL 2017 – Mike Evans Most Receiving Touchdowns (8/1 William Hill)
NFL 2017 – Le’Veon Bell Most Rushing Yards (3/1 SkyBet)
NFL 2017 – Todd Gurley Most Rushing Yards (10/1 SkyBet)
