NEWCASTLE host Wolves on Saturday night in the Premier League. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies.
Newcastle vs Wolves | Saturday 27th February 2021, 20:00 | Sky Sports
At first glance I thought Wolves were too short here but after looking at the stats behind Newcastle's two matches since Callum Wilson got injured, I cannot get with The Magpies in this one.
Wilson went off injured after 36 minutes against Southampton. Newcastle were 2-1 up at the time he went off and despite having a player sent off in the early part of the second half, they did win that game, 3-2.
Newcastle have since lost to Chelsea and Manchester United, each by a margin of two goals and managed a combined xG of 0.77 and one goal across the two games.
With Newcastle struggling to score and Wolves also failing to trouble the scorers too often this term – they have managed just 26 goals in 25 games this season – I did look at opposing goals. Backing under 1.5 goals did appeal to me but I was amazed to see this has only obliged in two of Newcastle's 25 league games this term.
I did see 8/5 available on the game being 0-0 at half time and that did appeal given Newcastle's paucity of goals and how often it lands in Wolves matches (four of their last six have been goalless at half time for example) but that price is no longer available so I will swerve that one and instead head to the bookings market, which is hopefully going to be ably served with Mike Dean the man in charge for this encounter.
Wolves have two of the quickest wingers in the league in Pedro Neto and Adama Traore and both are able to win free-kicks at a high rate. Traore was fouled around three times per games last season and while he hasn't reached those heights this season, he remains a huge threat for the black country outfit.
Neto and Traore are likely to be up against Emil Kraft and Jamal Lewis. Krafth has two bookings in eight games this term and Lewis has been carded four times in 19 starts this season. Krafth is 6/1 with SkyBet to be booked, while Lewis is 4/1 with BetVictor.
Given that referee Mike Dean has dished out 57 yellows and seven reds in 16 Premier League games this season, I think both are of good value. Moreover, when Mike Dean last took charge of a Wolves games – against Aston Villa in December – he booked nine and sent off two. Six of those players were from Villa, including both full backs so I am hoping history repeats itself on Saturday evening.
