NEWCASTLE welcome Arsenal in Sunday's Premier League encounter. Rob Mason (@Sturdys29) delivers his betting analysis.
Newcastle vs Arsenal | Sunday 2nd May 2021, 14:00 | Sky Sports
It is a big week for Mikel Arteta with his next fixture coming at St James’ Park on Sunday lunchtime. I am sure the Spaniard would be the first to admit this weekend’s Premier League game would not be his top priority.
The Gunners trip to Villareal did not go as they would ideally have liked in their first leg of the Europa League semi-final, getting beat 2-1. From the outset Arteta set his team up without a recognised striker and it was an unfamiliar system for them.
It was looking bleak for the Gunners after Dani Ceballos got his marching order and going down 2-0. A Pepe goal from the penalty spot was vital oal in the tie keeping them very much still in the race for Champions League football next season via the Europa league.
Meanwhile, the return of Allan Saint-Maximin looks to have made a big change to the fortunes of his Newcastle side. Since the tricky Frenchmen’s reappearance from injury, the Magpies have picked up 8 points from a possible 12.
The Geordies have now only lost one of their last 8 and have taken themselves away from immediate relegation danger. The hosts now sit on 36 points, 9 clear of Fulham with 5 games to go, and it would be a big surprise if they don’t beat the drop now.
The betting angles
In the outright markets, Newcastle are 3/1 with the draw at 11/4 and the Arsenal win at evens.
My initial thoughts were to back against Arsenal with the short turnaround period from their Europa game and the good spell that Newcastle are on currently. The Toon however are as low as 8/11 in the Double Chance market and that looks a little short to me.
A score draw looks the most likely outcome, in my opinion, but on this occasion, I will look towards other markets.
Goals aplenty at St James' Park
I was surprised to learn recently about the number of times that Both Teams To Score has landed in Newcastle home games this season. You may perceive Newcastle to be a defensive team under Steve Bruce but BTTS has landed in 13 of their 16 this season when playing at SJP (81%).
BTTS is priced at 7/10 which looks a fair price, but I am happy to also include Over 2.5 Goals, which then gets a price of 5/4 (via the Bet 365 Bet Builder).
This angle has still landed in 10 out of 16 of Newcastle’s home games, and taking into consideration Arsenal played on Thursday evening and may be feeling the effects, it is an angle I want to get behind.
Mike Dean to dish out the cards
The man in charge for Sunday afternoon is arguably the most well-known referee in the land, Mike Dean. Dean has dished out 76 yellow cards and 7 reds this season in his 21 appearances, and has averaged 3.76 cards (the 3rd highest in the Premier League).
The two teams also seem to draw yellow cards on to their opponents and that will be helped more so with the lively Saint Maximin also involved.
Newcastle’s opponents this season have averaged 2.06 cards when playing at home (the joint 3rd most in the league) and Arsenal’s opponents when playing away have also averaged the same (also the 3rd joint most in the league).
Considering the stats mentioned above, and the referee in charge, the angle I do like is both teams to pick up Over 1 Card. The play mentioned is priced up at 9/4 with Bet 365 and has landed in 6 out of Dean’s last 8 Premier League games.
Longshot
My longshot this week follows a similar trend as we have already discussed looking into the player card markets. After a spell out of the side Jacob Murphy has forced his way back into the starting line-up playing on the right of a back 5. Murphy has started 12 games this campaign with 9 substitute appearances and has been booked 3 times.
The right back was booked in his second to last appearance against West Ham and considering we have Mike Dean in charge, and the tricky wingers at Arsenal’s disposal, a price of 8/1 with William Hill looks to big to turn down.
Best Bets
Newcastle vs Arsenal – Both Teams Over 1 Card (9/4 Bet365
Newcastle vs Arsenal – Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals (5/4 Bet365)
Newcastle vs Arsenal – Jacob Murphy to receive a yellow card (8/1 William Hill)
