INTERNATIONAL football expert Ben Levene (@benlevene96) shares his betting thoughts on Saturday night's Nations League action.
Belarus v San Marino | Saturday 8th September 2018, 17:00 | Sky Sports
The worst European side according to FIFA rankings, San Marino, are unlikely to benefit from the Nations League which intends to provide more even match-ups.
The international whipping boys lost a cumulative 51-2 in World Cup qualification as they accumulated zero points. Eight of those 10 losses came in games featuring Over 3.5 Goals while they conceded three or more goals in nine of those.
Since 2010, San Marino have lost 21 of 24 away matches to nil. They’ve lost 19 of 24 of those in games featuring Over 3.5 Goals. You get the idea.
We can expect similar against a Belarus side who are far superior to San Marino. Belarus notched against France and Holland last year and have since put two past each of Georgia and Slovenia.
They’ve played six home games in the last two years with the only losses coming against Sweden and Holland.
With a live shot of earning an increased chance at European Championship qualification, Belarus can win comfortably here.
BATE Borisov, Astana and Sheriff have earned reputations as Europa League regulars and given the bulk of the Belarusian squad ply their trade at such a level, they should oversee San Marino with relative ease.
Belarus to win a game featuring Over 3.5 Goals is 20/21 with Bet365 and that's my main bet of the day.
San Marino have conceded inside the opening half-hour in 13 of their last 14 matches and so we can back Belarus to win the first 30 minutes at a generous 3/4 (William Hill).
Luxemborg v Moldova | Saturday 8th September 2018, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Luxemborg have been backed in from 6/4 to 11/8 (Sky Bet) at home to Moldova but even after the price change, the Red Lions are still backable. I’d go with 75% of what we’ve placed on the main bet.
Luc Holtz’s side have actually lost just two of their last ten football matches. Luxemborg drew away at France in qualification and have since beaten the likes of Hungary and Georgia on home turf.
A fair portion of their squad compete in European competitions and against a Moldova side who have scored just once in their last nine matches, they can run away victors.
Moldova have won just one of their last 21 games and that came against San Marino – as mentioned earlier, they’re Europe’s worst side. Going back further, they’ve have won just two of 40 matches. In qualification they lost four of five away matches to nil.
At 11/8 (Sky Bet) Luxemborg are too big.
Best Bets
Belarus v San Marino – Belarus to win and over 3.5 goals (20/21 Bet365)
Belarus v San Marino – Belarus to win the first 30 minutes (3/4 William Hill)
Luxemborg v Moldova – Luxemborg to win (11/8 Sky Bet)
