THE play-offs are approaching and Will Dyer (@w2Dyer) gives us his best bets from this weekend's MLS.
Montreal Impact v DC United | Saturday 22:00 | Sky Sports 5
There can be no doubt who’s playing the better soccer at the minute. Montreal are unbeaten in five games whilst DC have not won an MLS fixture in five attempts since actually winning at the Stade Saputo back in early August.
If you didn’t watch that game and went solely off head-to-heads you’d think I’m mad for picking Impact to win here at Even money but they absolutely played DC off the park in that game, and this was before the arrival of one Didier Drogba.
As predicted Didier has settled in wonderfully with five goals to his name already including a sensational hat trick on debut. If he’d been here since the start I think he’d probably be the top scorer this season.
Impact will be dangerous in the Play-Offs. I see them as sure-fire shots to make it to the post-season with two games in hand and a four point cushion over the bottom four in the Eastern Conference.
DC are not good in possession and the CONCACAF Champions League is taking its toll. They were typical DC in midweek away to Jamaican side Montego Bay. Going behind 3-0 before pulling it back to draw 3-3 with a last minute goal.
Impact have won three on the bounce at home and DC are the lowest scoring away side in the league. The Men in Red know how to nick a cheeky away win but I think justice will prevail this weekend.
New England Revolution v Philadelphia Union | Sunday 00:30
I’m more than happy to forgive New England for last week’s 3-0 defeat. In hindsight I should never have opposed Montreal but team news was crucial for that result and I was blind on information, being two days before kick-off.
New England were unbeaten in eight games before that loss and I believe they will bounce back at the Gillette. They’ve already beaten Philly in Pennsylvania twice this season and the Union are pretty much out of the Play-Off picture being six points behind Montreal in sixrh with just four games to go.
Union have a US Open Cup final coming up and I think their attentions will be focussed on that. Revolution have won five on the trot at home and all by different score-lines so I won’t be fiddling with any handicaps or specials here.
The straight New England win at 8/13 is a price worth taking in my opinion. Players like Diego Fagundez and Lee Nguyen should cause havoc and Revs’ only have one absentee. A win this weekend could see them in the quarter-final play-off berth so there’s plenty to play for.
Sporting Kansas City v Seattle Sounders | Sunday 22:00 | Sky Sports 1
Seattle are rejuvenated. They’ve registered back-to-back 3-0 wins over Vancouver Whitecaps, the current leaders of the Western Conference, home and away in the last week. Wednesday night’s win in the CONCACAF Champions League victory was especially impressive considering Obafemi Martins and Clint Dempsey were rested.
Oba has scored in all of Seattle’s last four MLS games and five of the last six. He is an absolute nightmare for defenders of Major League Soccer’s ilk. Sporting have now conceded 40 goals this season, the second worst in the West and with Seattle unbeaten in four I fancy them to score at Sporting Park and Martins is the most likely.
New York Red Bulls v Orlando City | Saturday 00:00
Apologies, last weekend was a horror show. I didn’t like any of the fixtures as it was so I should have made it a no bet Gameweek but recent form had gone to my head. I left the midweek fixtures alone and I return more focussed!
We are nearly at play-off time and you might have noticed that the teams that need to win to catch up have been doing just that. Backing the underdogs for the last few weekends could be a good strategy.
New York Red Bulls are the shortest price they’ve been all season. In fact I think only LA Galaxy have been priced shorter in 2015. For that reason I’m not interested at all in the straight match-odds market.
The one positive about goals based bets being such poor value this season is that opposing goals has the potential to be very lucrative. Orlando might be 7/1 to win this but they are still very much fancied by the bookies to score, BTTS is priced at 3/4 best odds. In most other divisions you’d be looking at Evens or higher for BTTS in a game with a heavy favourite like NYRB are here.
Red Bulls have already shut Orlando out in Florida this season winning 2-0 back in July. They have kept clean sheets in three of their last four games at the Red Bull Arena and are coming off the back of a 2-0 away win in Portland. That defence is without shadow of a doubt the best in the Eastern Conference.
Orlando have registered back-to-back wins but keeping that form going here looks beyond them. As you know I love backing home wins and Red Bulls look the best team in the division. 15/8 Skybet on them to win ‘to nil’ looks lovely considering they are just 2/5 to win.
Best Bets
New York Red Bulls v Orlando City – New York Red Bulls To Win To Nil (15/8 Skybet)
Montreal Impact v DC United – Montreal Impact to win (Evens BetVictor)
New England Revolution v Philadelphia Union – New England Revolution to win (8/13 William Hill)
Sporting Kansas City v Seattle Sounders – Obafemi Martins to score anytime (7/4 Skybet)
