CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Ligue 1's Sunday showdown between Metz and Monaco.
Metz vs Monaco | Sunday 30th August 2020, 14:00 | BT Sport
Niko Kovac and his Monaco side travel to Metz hoping they can claim their first three points of the season. Last time out, Les Monégasques found themselves behind early on, going two goals down at home to Reims, but managed to drag themselves back into the game and clinch a draw.
Monaco looked exceptionally suspect at the back and found themselves with work to do with just 21 minutes on the clock. A European spot has to be the target for principality club this season, but they’ll need to tighten up defensively if they’re to be successful in their efforts.
Vincent Hognon knows his Metz side will need to be at their best if they’re to start their season with a victory. The Lorraine outfit have a horrendous record against Monaco, winning just once in nine Ligue 1 games.
But given that Metz lost just two of their last 11 games towards the end of last season, they can feel quietly confident at the possibility of picking up a result.
Key stats:
Metz
- Committed on average 11.6 fouls per game when playing at home last season.
- Received on average 12.3 fouls per game when playing at home last season.
- Saw 2+ cards in 4/8 home games against sides in the top half last season.
- In those games, the opposition saw 2+ cards on 4/8 occasions
- Scored in 11/14 home games last season.
- Conceded in 11/14 home games last season.
Monaco
- Committed on average 12.6 fouls per game when playing away last season.
- Received on average 12.9 fouls per game when playing away last season.
- Saw 2+ cards in 7/9 away games against sides in the bottom half last season.
- In those games, the opposition saw 2+ cards on 4/9 occasions.
- Scored in 10/14 away games last season.
- Conceded in 11/14 away games last season.
Key facts
- There have been Over 2.5 Goals in five of their last six head-to-heads in all competitions.
- Over 2.5 Goals has landed in three of Metz last four season-opening games.
- Metz lost just two of their last 11 Ligue 1 games last season.
- Monaco have won eight of the last nine meetings between the sides.
- Cesc Fabregas and Stevan Jovetic are both expected to be absent for the away side.
- Pajot likely to start for Metz – he assisted three of the home sides last six goals in the league.
Analysis
My first pick is for there to be at least three goals in the game. I watched Monaco in their game against Reims and they made a host of chances that they really should’ve taken. But on the flipside, Reims managed to get through on goal with alarming regularity and more than deserved to score two goals.
Metz scored in approximately 79% of their home games last season, meanwhile, Monaco also conceded 79% of the time on their travels.
History also tends to repeat itself. There have been Over 2.5 Goals in five of the last six meetings between these two in all competitions and the goal line has been hit in three of the last four of Metz season-opening matches. As such, at over evens, this is my best bet for this one.
Secondly, Under 40 Booking Points in total stands out. It’s slightly risky given that Monaco, more often than they would like, have to play with 10 men. However, referee Jeremy Stinat isn’t very card happy. In his all-time statistics, he has handed Monaco a total of six cards in three games. He has also overseen just one Metz game in which they picked up just the one.
I expect this to be intense but with the referee in charge, I’m happy to have a go on the price at Under 40 Booking Points.
Best Bets
Metz vs Monaco – Over 2.5 Goals ((21/20 Betfair)
Metz vs Monaco – Under 40 Booking Points (11/10 SkyBet)
