NEWLY-CROWNED champions Liverpool head to Manchester City on Thursday night. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his thoughts on the Premier League encounter.
Manchester City vs Liverpool | Thursday 2nd July 2020, 20:15 | Sky Sports
This is the game we were all looking at, thinking it would be a key title decider at the tail end of the season. That’s not the case, which is sad from a neutrals point of view. Liverpool deservedly wrapped up the title after Manchester City succumbed to a 2-1 loss at Chelsea last week which made it impossible to catch the rampant Reds.
It’s a phrase that’s used in American Football but it’s as adaptable to the actual stuff, “attack wins you games, defence wins you titles”. That’s been the case this season. Liverpool have largely being unflappable at the back, conceding two or more goals in just the two games throughout the whole campaign. City, on the other hand, have conceded 12 more goals and ultimately, that has been their failing.
You could put a lot of that down to the absence of Aymeric Laporte for half the season, he’s the glue that holds that defence together and other partnerships have always looked fragile. He brings calmness and composure and is clearly a class above of his centre half colleagues. If City partner him with a world class defender then they may have a good chance to get revenge on Liverpool next season.
Although there’s not an awful lot actually at stake here, I do think these two groups of players will be hell–bent on showing everyone who are better. I do expect it to be quite feisty therefore, and it draws my eyes to the card markets.
Liverpool have been a well disciplined team this season which is another feather in the cap of Jurgen Klopp. They rarely find themselves in danger which shows the positioning of the entire team is pretty much flawless. However, away from home in games against the better sides they can find themselves in the book. They’ve picked up a card in each of their away games against the top-eight.
City, on the other hand, seem to be the kings of tactical fouls and it’s no surprise to see them picking up an average of around two cards per-game. If you take their record at home against top-eight opponents it rises further.
With that in mind, the odds against helping on City Over 1 Card and Liverpool Over 0 Cards with bet365’s BetBuilder looks a nice way in. Especially with Anthony Taylor in charge, he is up there with Mike Dean in terms of cards given out this season with 103 yellows and five reds.
I’ll dip into the player props market for my next selection and that’s for Kyle Walker to attempt Over 52.5 Passes at 5/6 with Bet365. I know this is against Liverpool who are up there for possession but I expect City to dominate the ball here as Klopp will be well aware that the hosts are there to be got at on the break. With the pace of Sadio Mane and Mo Salah it could be their best way of going about it.
Walker has surpassed this line in a whopping 19/21 games where he’s played the full 90 minutes, furthermore, he averages 71.4 passes per-90 minutes and this bet landed in the reverse fixture. City average 3% more possession than Liverpool too. I can’t believe his line is that low to be honest.
Best Bets
Manchester City vs Liverpool – Manchester City Over 1 Card and Liverpool Over 0 Cards (21/20 Bet365)
Manchester City vs Liverpool – Kyle Walker Over 52.5 Passes (5/6 Bet365)
