LEEDS travel to Man City in Saturday's early Premier League match-up. James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt) shares his thoughts on the fixture.
Manchester City vs Leeds | Saturday 10th April 2021, 12:30 | BT Sport
Leeds were once revered by fans across the country but under Bielsa that became the nation's sweethearts and when it comes to the big games it you can almost see why. The Argentine supremo does not compromise, he plays his way and this has led to some epic clashes against the top flights top dogs.
Leeds have played eleven games against the current top four and the traditional big six, these bouts have featured 42 goals- averaging just under four goals per game- as we have seen five, six, seven and even an eight-goal thriller.
As alluded to though, the Yorkshire boys do not hold back. In these fixtures they have averaged 12.2 shots- racking up 134 in total- as they have met Bet365’s line of nine on seven occasions which includes the reverse of this fixture. They have also met the line of 12, which is priced at 9/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power, in 45% of these games (including the reverse). Therefore, I think both are worthy of a punt.
Sticking with shots, Leeds’ star man certainly is not shy of taking aim. Raphina has averaged 2.4 shots per game in the EPL this season, a tally only bested in West Yorkshire by Patrick Bamford.
The Brazilian winger has had at least two efforts in 81% of his starts and certainly does not shy away from the big occasion as he has had more than one effort in Leeds’ games vs; Chelsea (both), West Ham, Arsenal (both) and Man Utd. At odds against with Bet365, Raphina shots is certainly a play at the Etihad.
I also think Betfair’s price of 10/1 for him to accumulate four attempts is worth a small play as well, given that he has hit this line in over a quarter of his EPL starts.
For my final pick I have delved into the goalscorer markets and it is Man City’s Ayeric Laporte’s price that has taken my fancy. A centre back has scored in five of Leeds’ 11 games against the big boys (Zouma, Ogbonna, Lindelof and Alderweireld).
The visitors have shipped the most goals in the league via set pieces (15) and Bielsa refuses to compromise on his shoddy defensive set up as he insists their victories must come honourably. Laporte is yet to find the net in the EPL, however, he has averaged 0.4 SpG and with Leeds coming to town he has the perfect opportunity to break his duck.
Best Bets
Manchester City vs Leeds – Leeds Over 8.5 Shots (11/10 Bet365)
Manchester City vs Leeds – Leeds 12 Shots (9/2 Betfair)
Manchester City vs Leeds – Raphina Over 1.5 Shots (5/4 Bet365)
Manchester City vs Leeds – Raphina 4 Shots (10/1 Betfair)
Manchester City vs Leeds – Aymeric Laporte Anytime Goalscorer (21/2 SBK)
