STRUGGLING Bournemouth head to Manchester City on Wednesday night in desperate need of a result. Brett Curtis (@brett_curtis92) showcases his favourite fancies.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth | Wednesday 15th July 2020, 18:00 | Sky Sports
Manchester City host Bournemouth on Wednesday evening as the Cherries look to build on their stunning 4-1 win against Leicester on Sunday.
Losing 1-0 at half-time having been comprehensively outplayed, Eddie Howe’s side were staring yet another defeat and the likelihood of relegation in the face. However, two errors from Kasper Schmeichel and a red card for Caglar Soyuncu helped turn the game in their favour in a dramatic second-half.
The bookmakers don’t fancy them to pull off another shock victory at the Etihad, though, pricing Bournemouth at 16/1 to win and 15/2 to nick a point, with City 1/7 to win.
Indeed, it’s always tough to find value on Pep Guardiola’s side when they face a bottom-half side at home, but there are a few bets I like the look of here.
David Silva is 4/5 (Betfair) to have 1+ shot on-target. The Spaniard was rested at Brighton, so I expect him to start here before dropping back to the bench for the FA Cup semi-final against Arsenal at the weekend (but of course it may be sensible to wait for team news before placing any player specific bets).
Silva has had at least one shot on-target in all four of his league starts since the restart, with two in both of his last two starts (scoring vs Newcastle) making the 4/1 on offer for him to have 2+ tempting, too. He will want to sign off his illustrious City career in style and this is his penultimate home game, albeit without the fandom in the ground a player of his productivity and longevity deserves.
Another player prop I can’t resist is Jefferson Lerma to be carded at 7/4 (bet365). The Colombian has been booked in 11 of his 28 starts this season, and it would likely have been much more than that had he not been one yellow card away from a two-match ban for several of those starts.
Those fears are gone now with the threshold removed, and he will lead the aggression and bite in Bournemouth’s midfield. 13/2 (also bet365) on him to be the first player carded also looks a good price given it has landed in six of his 28 starts, including against Tottenham last week.
At a similar price, I like the look of Man City to win 4-0 or 5-0 at 6/1 (Betfair). Since the restart, they’ve won 5-0 three times and 4-0 once. 5-0 looks a very big price at 16/1, and might be worth a small play, with 4-0 shorter at 9/1.
The Citizens did win 4-0 at home against Bournemouth in the 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons under Pep, so I think the 6/1 on offer for either scoreline is a great price for a team in scintillating form.
Best Bets
Manchester City vs Bournemouth – Manchester City to win 4-0 or 5-0 (6/1 Betfair)
Manchester City vs Bournemouth – David Silva to have 1+ shot on-target (4/5 Betfair)
Manchester City vs Bournemouth – Jefferson Lerma to be carded (7/4 Bet365)
