CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Thursday night's Europa League showdown between Spurs and Ludogorets.
Ludogorets vs Tottenham | Thursday 5th November 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Jose Mourinho and his Tottenham side make the trip to Bulgaria on Thursday evening as they look to get their Europa League ambitions back on track against First League leaders, Ludogorets.
Spurs fell to a 1-0 defeat last time out against Royal Antwerp, leaving them second in their group on goal difference. They’re three points better off than Thursday’s opponents who are yet to pick up a single point in this competition so far.
Mourinho has won the Europa League twice before, with two different sides, and Spurs fans will be hoping that he can make it a hat-trick with them this season.
This is the first match of a double-header between the two and if the Lilywhites can get wins in both, it’ll be a huge stride towards qualifying for the latter stages!
Key stats
Ludogorets:
- Have seen 2+ cards in 6/8 home games this season in all competitions.
- In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 8/8 occasions.
- Have won only two of their last five matches in all competitions, while their two defeats in that time both came in the Europa League.
- Were involved an entertaining 4-3 clash in Austria last week and are not to be taken lightly here.
- Have scored in all of their last FIVE competitive home games.
- Ludogorets have been defeated in FOUR of their last FIVE matches in Europa League
Team news:
- Higinio joins Wanderson on the sidelines, but the pair are Ludogorets' only absences here.
- Both Anicet Andrianantenaina and Dominik Yankov were used from the bench at the weekend, with the former in line to start in midfield.
Tottenham:
- Have seen 2+ cards in 1/6 away games this season in all competitions and in 0/3 UEL games.
- In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 5/6 occasions.
- Last week's loss in Belgium was the first away match that Spurs have lost this season, this ended a five-game away winning streak in the process.
- Tottenham have won FOUR of their last FIVE Europa League games
Team news:
- Joe Rodon is ineligible for the trip to Bulgaria, while Sergio Reguilon is ill and unlikely to feature.
- Erik Lamela and Serge Aurier also sit out the midweek clash, but Japhet Tanganga is back in training after a thigh issue.
- Mourinho made a host of half time changes in Belgium last week, with the likes of Dele Alli, Carlos Vinicius and Giovani Lo Celso all hauled off the break.
Referee: Fran Jovic (Croatia)
- Has taken charge of TWO UEL games so far this season handing out a single card in AC Milan Vs. Bodo/Glimt and FIVE in the Bayer Leverkusen Vs. Nice match.
Analysis
My first bet is simply going with the previous form and consistent occurrences. Given that Spurs have seen 2+ cards in just 1/6 of their away games this season (0/3 in the Europa League) I fancy them to definitely see less than three.
Whilst their opposition are no pushovers, I expect to see Spurs dominate the ball and weather the occasional storm that the hosts throw at them. I don’t see too many cynical fouls being committed by the away side.
The second part of this bet builder double is for Pavel Vrba’s men to get on the scoresheet. Spurs have conceded in 6/7 EPL games so far and have conceded in every UEL away game dating back to 2016. Combined with the fact that Ludogorets have scored in all of their last FIVE competitive home game, I think that odds of 13/10 is slightly overpriced.
My second bet is for there to be Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score. The Lilywhites last outing in Europe was somewhat of an anomaly, losing 1-0 away to Antwerp. Before that match, all FOUR UEL games that Mourinho’s men had played this season (including qualifying rounds) had seen over 2.5 goals and in those four, both teams scored in THREE of them.
Couple this up with Ludogorets conceding in their last FIVE UEL home matches then you’ve got solid reasoning for this pick.
Best Bets
Ludogorets vs Tottenham – Spurs Under 3 Cards and Ludogorets Razgrad to Score Over 0 Goals (13/10 Bet365)
Ludogorets vs Tottenham – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score (11/10 Bet365)
