RUNAWAY leaders Liverpool host Bournemouth on Saturday. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from the Premier League encounter.
Liverpool v Bournemouth | Saturday 7th March 2020, 12:30 | BT Sport
In a pretty impeccable season Liverpool have hit a little bump in the road. Recent defeats against Atletico Madrid, Watford and Chelsea have all been disappointing. The verve seems to have gone from the team at the top of the pitch and defensively, they’ve conceded and average of two goals in their last four, that after a strong run of clean sheets.
So do 12/1 quotes on Bournemouth tempt you in? I couldn’t put you off a fun poke on it, especially with a huge Champions League night on the horizon for the Reds midweek.
However it must be noted that the Cherries are atrocious travellers – Eddie Howe has seen his side pick up just four points from of a possible 33 on the road in their last 11 away league fixtures. That includes losing their last five away games, all of which were against relatively weak opposition.
One thing that can not be questioned is Liverpool at Anfield. They’ve won every single home league game this season and they look comfortable as they can when on home soil. They’re understandably short given that record so I’m going to delve into Bet365’s BetBuilder feature to try eek out a bit more value.
We can get a backable 20/23 quote if you combine the home win, Under 5 Goals and Bournemouth to have Over 0 Cards and I’m happy to play that. This has all the hallmarks of Liverpool just getting the job done and maybe bringing off their key men once they’ve established a lead in preparation for Wednesday night.
With Bournemouth’s poor away record I expect them to try sit in a low block like they did in the reverse meeting and try hit them on the break if the opportunity comes about.
What’s more, the south coast outfit are one of the most prolific teams for bookings when they’re visitors. They’ve clocked up 32 yellows and one red on the road which averages out to 2.35 cards per-game. They’ve been incredibly consistent in that regard too, picking up two cards in 13/14 away games this term.
Trent to pull the trigger
One market I’ve looked to explore of late is Trent Alexander-Arnold in the shots market. He’s been so good going forward this year and they way Jurgen Klopp sets up he allows the full-backs freedom to get right up the pitch.
He’s also on the majority of free kicks, particularly on the left side of the pitch or centrally. With that in mind, I’ll delve into Coral’s YourCall market and you can get some 9/4 on Trent having rwo or more shots from outside the area and although this has been bigger in recent weeks I still think it’s a good thing.
He’s averaging 1.3 shots per-game and he’s only failed to have a shot in seven games this season. In recent times he’s had three shots against Norwich and four against West Ham. The large majority of his shots naturally come from distance so I’m happy to take the outside the box rather the 11/10 on just him to have two shots.
I’ll also take a dabble on him to have 3+ shots outside the box at 8/1 with the same firm. I’m not sure they’ve factored in that he is on free-kicks which usually means a guaranteed attempted shot. Remember these shots can by high, wide or blocked, they still count as shots.
I’ll certainly be involved in those two angles and the 25/1 on 4+ shots outside the box with stakes set accordingly of course.
Best Bets
Liverpool v Bournemouth – Liverpool to win, Under 5 Goals, Bournemouth Over 0 Cards (20/23 Bet365)
Liverpool v Bournemouth – Trent Alexander-Arnold to have 2+ shots outside the box (9/4 Coral)
Liverpool v Bournemouth – Trent Alexander-Arnold to have 3+ shots outside the box (8/1 Coral)
