CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Sunday's FA Cup semi-final showdown between Leicester and Southampton.
Leicester vs Southampton | Sunday 18th April 2021, 18:30 | BT Sport
Wembley plays host to the second semi-final in two days as The Foxes and The Saints battle it out for a place in the FA Cup final against Chelsea.
It’s been a relatively tough April for Brendan Rodgers side who’ve lost both of their games and are winless since beating Manchester United in the previous round of this competition. Southampton may prove to be a tricky test, but Leicester will feel as though they’ve got the tools at hand to dispose of Southampton yet again.
Ralph Hasenhuttl has already said that this competition is the main focus and will name a full-strength side and wants his team to hunt down The Foxes to book their place in the final. They’ve been a different side in the cup and have already dispatched cup holders Arsenal, EPL rivals Wolves and lower division sides Bournemouth and Shrewsbury town, all without conceding a single goal.
Despite the struggles, Hasenhuttl’s men are just 90 minutes away from reaching the final of the most coveted domestic cup competition on the planet.
It promises to be a tactical but fiery game in the capital.
Key stats
Leicester:
● Leicesters opponents in the FA Cup have seen at least a card in all four matches.
● The Foxes have seen over 2.5 goals land in 3/4 FA Cup games.
● Over 2.5 Goals has landed in four of their last six head-to-head meetings.
● Scored 11 goals in four FA Cup games – including three against Manchester United.
● Leicester have won 7 of their last 8 FA Cup matches.
Team news:
● James Maddison, Ayoze Perez and Hamza Choudhury have all returned to training after missing Leicester's defeat to West Ham last weekend for breaking COVID-19 protocols. It remains to be seen whether Brendan Rodgers will give any of them a start here.
● Leicester hopes to have Turkish international Caglar Soyuncu available from COVID-19 this weekend. Cengiz Under is also back in contention but James Justin and Harvey Barnes remain sidelined.
Southampton:
● Have seen at least a card in all four of their FA Cup matches and 2+ in 3/4.
● Conceding on average 3.33 goals per game when playing teams currently in the top four.
● Southampton have won their last 4 FA Cup games.
Team news:
● Michael Obafemi, Oriol Romeu and William Smallbone remain injured for Southampton, while Takumi Minamino is ineligible after already featuring in the competition with parent club Liverpool.
● Southampton lost 3-0 to West Brom last weekend but it was pretty much their strongest available XI, which will surely be of worry to Ralph Hassenhuttl.
● Che Adams, Moussa Djenepo and Nathan Tella are the only real options for change for Southampton.
Referee: Chris Kavanagh
● Awarding an average of 3.27 yellow cards per game this season.
● In the last game refereed by Kavanagh featuring Leicester City, their opponents saw 30 booking points.
Analysis
My best bet for this one is for over 2.5 goals to be scored in the game and for Saints to see at least a card in the game for a healthy price of 13/10 or 2.3.
Leicester's FA Cup games this season have seen over 2.5 goals in three of their four matches and they face off against a side who are conceding goals for fun and even conceded three goals to West Brom last time out – the fourth-lowest scorers in the top flight.
Quite simply, Leicester are going to have too much for them. However, I do think the Saints will make it competitive, especially given that this competition can now be their main focus as they look to have secured Premier League football for next season.
We then just need Saints to receive a single card in the game. They’ve seen at least one in every match they’ve played in this competition and The Foxes opponents have also seen at least a card in every single one of their matches.
Best Bet
Leicester vs Southampton – Over 2 Goals and Over 0 Southampton Cards (13/10 Bet365)
