LEEDS welcome Sheffield United in Saturday's Premier League encounter. Rob Mason (@Sturdys29) delivers his betting analysis.
Leeds vs Sheffield United | Saturday 3rd April 2021, 15:00 | Amazon Prime
The only 3pm Premier League game comes in the form of a Yorkshire derby, as Leeds United host Sheffield United.
Leeds currently sit 11th and 1 point away from the magical 40-point total. Premier league safety next term is just about secured, in what has been an impressive first season back in the top-flight.
Before the international break, the Whites picked up 3 points away against Fulham, their first victory in 4 games. It was a hard fought victory, in a game which could have gone either way with Fulham having a higher xG output.
It could be argued that the break may have come at a good time for Sheffield United, especially after the run they have been on this season. The Blades have the worst away record in the league, picking up just 4 points.
United’s performance last time out against Chelsea in the FA Cup was much improved from other games though. The Blades conceded an own goal in the first half but had a few decent chances to get an equaliser before conceding a second late on.
In Paul Heckingbottom’s pre-match press conference he said the squad “ had a couple of days off after Chelsea and came back and worked really hard. They’ve had time away, to process everything, and now it’s time to refocus and look forward”.
The betting angles
In the outright market, Leeds are 1/2 whilst the draw is 10/3 and the Sheffield United victory is 11/2. It has been a real rollercoaster type season in terms of results for Leeds and odds of 1/2 do seem on the short side. The outright market is a real puzzle at the odds-on offer in my eyes and one I am going to leave alone.
Head-to-heads involving the two teams have historically been a low-scoring affairs with 9 of the last 12 matches all producing Under 2.5 Goals. Recent form also points towards a limited number of goals with both teams been involved in Under 2.5 matches in 6 of their last 10 league games.
Sheffield United have also picked up a card in 9 of their last 10 and when we add Under 2.5 goals Sheff Utd to pick up a card we get a price of 7/5 which is an attractive proposition with Bet365.
In the player props, I do like a bet involving John Fleck and tackles. In Fleck’s last 13 games he has registered at least 2 tackles in 9 of the last 13 games he has played. Fleck is priced at 6/5 with PokerStars to achieve 2 tackles and looks a value play to my eye.
For my longshot I look towards cards, where we have Graham Scott in charge. Leeds average 1.54 cards at home (8th highest at home) whilst Sheff Utd rank top for cards away at 2.21.
Receiving Over 1 card for their own team has landed in 3 out of Leeds last 4 games and Sheffield United have had over 1 card in 4 of their last 5 games.
Over 1 Card Each has landed in 3 out of Scott’s last 6 games and considering we have a Yorkshire derby, 11/2 with 365, it looks worthy of a small play.
Best Bets
Leeds vs Sheffield United – Under 2.5 Goals and Sheffield United Over 0 Cards (7/5 Bet365)
Leeds vs Sheffield United – John Fleck 2+ tackles (6/5 Poker Stars)
Leeds vs Sheffield United – Both Teams Over 1 Card (11/2 Bet365)
