LEEDS welcome Manchester City on Saturday in the Premier League. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies.
Leeds vs Manchester City | Saturday 3rd October 2020, 17:30 | Sky Sports
I honestly thought my eyes were deceiving me when I saw that Manchester City were as short as 4/11 to win this encounter. City lost 5-2 against Leicester last weekend, don’t have a recognised striker at the minute and are facing a confident Leeds side, with two wins to their name this season as well as managing three goals at Anfield against Liverpool.
I did therefore consider backing Leeds outright, in the Draw No Bet market and with a one-goal start. However, I don’t think City will make the volume of mistakes they did against Leicester and it is highly unlikely that they will concede three penalties in the game.
Therefore despite several concerns about this City team, I do expect them to dominate this game and eventually prevail and will instead have three darts at bets with bigger prices.
Firstly, I like the look of Rodrigo at 7/1 with Paddy Power in the Anytime Goalscorer market. It is fair to say that the Spanish international has not hit the ground running at Leeds yet, but he generally managed one goal every three-to-four games in La Liga and certainly has the pace to trouble the City backline.
Even if he doesn’t start the game, I am convinced that he will play a big part in the second half and looks far better value than Patrick Bamford, who is less than half the price.
Elsewhere, I like the look of a couple of correct score prices. I am surely repeating myself here, but once again I will be looking at the 2-1 and 3-1 scorelines, in favour of Manchester City.
In 154 league matches under Pep Guardiola’s tutelage, City have won 41 by a scoreline of either 2-1 or 3-1. Twenty of these have been 2-1, suggesting that 13/2 would be around the correct price for such a result. Thankfully though, 8-1 is available with Bet365 on said scoreline.
With 21 of these 154 matches finishing 3-1, I am very pleased that 10/1 is available on the most common result since the Spaniard took over at The Etihad.
Best Bets
Leeds vs Manchester City – Rodrigo to score anytime (7/1 Paddy Power)
Leeds vs Manchester City – Manchester City to win 2-1 (8/1 Bet365)
Leeds vs Manchester City – Manchester City to win 3-1 (10/1 Bet365)
