CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Thursday night's Europa League showdown between Spurs and LASK Linz.
LAS Linz vs Tottenham | Thursday 26th November 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Tottenham travel to Austria on Thursday evening knowing that a win will see them through into the knockout stages of the Europa League. However, it’s last chance saloon for hosts LASK Linz.
Jose Mourinho’s side are currently top but level on points with Antwerp going into this one. With the latter facing off at home to the whipping boys of the group, Ludogorets, Spurs will go into this one with the mindset of only a win will do.
The London side has scored 10 and conceded just two across all four group stage games thus far and are expected to breeze through this one.
Dominik Thalhammer’s hosts are in the midst of a dominant run of form at home this season. They’ve won all five of their domestic home games by an aggregate scoreline of 15-1 and have only lost once at home in all competitions this season, to second-placed Antwerp.
Key stats
LASK Linz:
- Have won TWO and lost TWO of their opening FOUR UEL games.
- Have won EIGHT of their last NINE home games in all competitions.
- Average 17 shots per game when playing at home in the UEL this season.
- Have seen a red card and 2+ yellows in both of their home group games so far.
Team news:
- LASK must do without Marko Raguz, Petar Filipovic and Lukas Grgic, with the absence of the former duo a huge blow.
- Husein Balic should deputise for Raguz once more on the frontline, while Andres Andrade is expected to start at the back.
Tottenham:
- Have scored at least THREE goals in FIVE of their last SIX UEL matches.
- Have won SIX of their last SEVEN UEL matches.
- Have been winning at both half time and full time in FIVE of their last SIX UEL games.
- There have been over 2.5 goals in SEVEN of their last EIGHT UEL matches.
- Have kept a clean sheet in their last FOUR games.
- Average 18.5 shots per game away from home in the UCL (second highest).
Team news:
- Dele Alli returned to the starting XI for Tottenham's 4-0 win over Ludogorets last week and should feature from the off here.
- Giovani Lo Celso, Davinson Sanchez and Gareth Bale are among those who may also start in Austria.
- Erik Lamela is absent through injury, while Joe Rodon is ineligible for the Europa League. Toby Alderweireld is back in training but is unlikely to be risked ahead of Sunday's North London Derby.
- Carlos Vinicius, Sergio Reguilon and Harry Kane weren't training on Wednesday and are doubts.
Referee: Pawel Raczkowski
- Has been the referee for just ONE UEL game this season, a game in which he handed out SIX cards.
- His all-time average in this competition (14 apps) is 4.93 yellow cards per game.
Analysis
My first pick is a Bet Builder on Bet365. I’m going with Over 2 Goals and LASK to pick up a couple of cards. I’m extremely surprised to see this price, I’d have it a bit lower than this considering the statistics behind it.
There have been Over 2.5 Goals in SEVEN of their last EIGHT UEL matches which is some run, and given what’s at stake here for both sides i fancy at least three goals in this one.
LASK have picked up a red and a couple of yellows in both of their opening UEL games this season at home, they’re going up against a Spurs side who’s full of pace and they won’t want allow spurs to get in behind them – expect a few cynical fouls!
The Polish referee has an extremely high all-time average and handed SIX cards out in his sole appearance so far in this competition.
My second two bets are for Mourinho’s men to have 14/15+ shots in the game. Quite simply, a win for Spurs and they guarantee qualification from the group stage.
Tottenham are averaging 18.5 shots away from home so far in this competitions and with the opportunity to put themselves into the next round with a win, I expect the home sides goal to have periods under siege.
Both of these bets have landed in both of Spurs previous UEL away games this season and at these prices, I’m happy to have a play and back them to happen again.
Best Bets
LASK Linz vs Tottenham – LASK Linz Over 1 Card and Over 2 Goals (5/4 Bet365)
LASK Linz vs Tottenham – Spurs 14+ Shots (11/10 SkyBet)
LASK Linz vs Tottenham – Spurs 15+ Shots (7/4 SkyBet)
