INTER MILAN welcome Getafe on Wednesday evening for their Last 16 Europa League tie. Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB ) showcases his favourite fancies.
Inter Milan vs Getafe | Wednesday 5th August 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
With the European season finally concluded at the weekend there is no time to pause for breath as we move swiftly on to deciding elite club competition honours with my focus on what looks like a real bruising battle as the bad boys of Spain – Getafe – look to upset the odds against Inter Milan on the neutral soil of Gelsenkirchen.
Some five months behind schedule this one-legged tie will be Jose Bordalas’ side first game since closing their La Liga season with a 1-0 defeat at Levante on 19th July and he will be hoping that break will see his men return in better form as they ended their league campaign with just one win in 10.
Inter Milan to win to nil (6/4 Sky Bet)
Getafe will most certainly will need to as, in contrast, Inter lost just once since the restart (W8-D4-L1) scoring 32 goals in the process and didn’t concede any in their final four (W3-D1-L0) finishing just a solitary point behind Juventus at the top of Serie A.
As we would expect, Antonio Conte’s side are very warm favourites here – at a widely available best priced 4/6 – but considering just one of the Nerazzurri’s last six games in this competition have seen both teams score, I like the look of the 6/4 on offer with SkyBet for the Italian side winning to nil, especially so as in the final five games of that dreadful end to the Spanish season, El Geta only managed to find the net once.
17+ Getafe Tackles (11/10 Sky Bet)
With two weeks to prepare and focus for this game, Bordalas will expect his team to put up a strong fight in an attempt to nullify the array of attacking talent available to the Serie A runners-up and as a result I believe there is some value to be had in the team tackles market.
Los Azulones have identical possession stats in both league and European action, having the ball for just 45.8% on average, so it is safe to assume that will be the case again on Wednesday night, with their opponents usually having a 52% lion’s share of possession in their own games.
The Spanish side average 15.3 tackles per-La Liga game but that rises to 16.9 when in Europa League action and we can play 17+ Getafe tackles with Sky Bet at 11/10, which is a line they have comfortably crossed in two of their last three away trips in the competition at Basel (25) and Krasnodar (21) contributing to an away average of 19.25 overall.
Cards likely in Gelsenkirchen
Staying on the right side of the law will as ever be the hard part for La Liga’s most carded team – 131 yellow and seven red cards is some haul over a 38 game season and although their Europa League average drops to 2.75 cards per-game – 21 yellow, 1 red – the bookies are taking no chances when pricing up the disciplinary lines in this one.
Inter are no angels themselves where seven red cards played a big part in the Milan outfit being Serie A’s sixth worst-behaved side.
England’s Anthony Taylor is the man in charge and out of the regular Premier League officials he sits third for yellow cards per-game having shown with 122 in 32 appearances, plus five reds given on top.
One appearance in the Europa League saw three yellows, however, when in charge of Champions League games, Taylor’s average rises to 5.60 cards (27 yellow, 1 red) from his five matches officiated. His fouls per game average is also a lot higher, rising to 29.0 across the two European competitions from his domestic average of 20.25.
Sky Bet have 60+ Booking Points at odds on (4/5), Bet 365 go 10/11 for Over 6.5 Cards, which although being distinctly possible are too high for me to put forward with conviction.
However, in a game where cards do look very likely I am going to take an angle in via the player to be carded market to keep that fact on our side.
Allan-Romeo Nyom to be carded (2/1 William Hill)
Using league stats to give a bigger sample size, Inter average 14.8 fouls per-game, we have already seen they are likely to have more ball here and face a side who have collected 33 more cards – 0.87 more per-game and with an average of 18.6 fouls per-game in La Liga, I will focus on the underdogs players.
Sitting at the top of the naughty list are three individuals in double-figures for cards collected– Damian Suarez (15 yellow 1 red, plus a yellow in Europe), Jaime Mata (14 yellow, plus 2 EL yellows), Allan-Romeo Nyom (13 yellow, 2 red, plus 2 EL yellows) and it is the ex-Watford and West Brom man that catches my eye.
Nyom ended the domestic campaign with two red cards and has seen a card of some description in 10 of his last 17 games, even managing to pick up a caution as an 80th minute sub in the home draw with Eibar.
So, I am taking a chance that, if starting, Allan-Romeo Nyom will add another card to his collection here at odds of 2/1 with William Hill.
Best Bets
Inter Milan vs Getafe – Inter Milan to win to nil (6/4 Sky Bet)
Inter Milan vs Getafe – 17+ Getafe Tackles (11/10 Sky Bet)
Inter Milan vs Getafe – Allan-Romeo Nyom to be carded (2/1 William Hill)
