NFL boff Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) returns to cover Monday Night Football as the Eagles welcome the Packers.
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles | Tuesday 01:30 | Sky Sports 1
This was a really tough match-up to find angle on! I think this has been the longest I’ve spent looking at a game all season…
On the one hand, you’ve got the Eagles who have been dominant at home, giving up a miniscule 9.5 points per-game there this season.
So you’d think Packers going Under or Unders in general would be a play, but they face a Green Bay offense that averages 24.7 points per-game and has not been the problem during their losing streak.
What has been the problem is the Packers’ defence that has given up 420.8 yards per-game and allowed opposing QBs a 105.5 rating during the four games in a row they’ve lost.
The problem is that the Eagles just don’t have the weapons on the outside to take advantage of this. Jordan Matthews is about it.
I was going to disregard the running game as the Packers still possess a decent run defence (sixth in the league), but then I remembered Eagles RB Ryan Mathews is out for this game and saw an incredibly favourable line for fellow RB Darren Sproles.
I have to back Sproles to go over 60.5 rushing and receiving yards (10/11 William Hill).
That seems an incredibly low line for a talented RB that is adept at both running and catching the ball when he’s likely to now be the starter in this one.
Even with Mathews in the line-up, Sproles is productive – he’s gone over that total in five games this season.
With the extra touches he’s likely to get against a Packers defence that has suffered far too many injuries, I think Sproles clears the line on Monday night.
Best Bets
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles – Darren Sproles to have Over 50.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (5/6 Paddy Powerl)
