BACK with five more big-priced golf picks it's Louis Ross (@KingLouis2105). This week, the Wells Fargo Championship.
Wells Fargo Championship | Thursday – Sunday | Sky Sports
Welcome to a piece entitled “You have priced Rory at 7/2 to win this week, did you see him putt last week? My mum could do better”. Snappy eh?
You might get the theme of what I'm about to say right there. Rory could and maybe should have won by eight shots at Sawgrass. Tee to green, he was exceptional. That was what gave me such confidence. His play with the flat stick however was woeful.
Let's get this out of the way. Rory has a game made for Quail Hollow, won here in 2010 (starting at 66/1!!!) and with yet another softened course, he is a worthy favourite. If you can get some kind of triple odds offer on a new account, go for it but 7/2 in a field of 120 plus is ludicrous.
Rant over. Quail Hollow near Charlotte is the third longest course on the PGA Tour at 7562 Yards. An absolute monster. The Par 72 features some huge Par 3s, a couple of reachable Par 5s and some of the hardest Par 4s you will see anywhere.
The key to winning here is to attack. Particularly the Par 5s and then to not throw too many shots away on the horrible holes where Bogeys are unavoidable.
14-15 under will win this. You can see why Rory is so short. The course, the setup and the conditions are made for him. The positive thing about the 7/2 is the value elsewhere that it leaves.
Names on my shortlist this week were Henrik Stenson, Hideki Matsuyama and JB Holmes but I think there's better value elsewhere. On to my main pick and that's my namesake, the in-form Louis Oosthuizen. 6th at Doral, 9th at Bay Hill followed by a Top 20 at Augusta.
Louis is making his debut here, but this is a course where his wonderful approach play will serve him well. He also made a first ever start at the equally quirky Harbour Town the week after The Masters and his 7th place shows his adaptability. 45/1 stands out to me.
This golf course is incredibly tricky to plot your way round. Especially the 16th, 17th & 18th collectively known as The Green Mile. The hardest closing holes on the PGA Tour.
One man who has proved he knows his way around here is Phil Mickleson. I adore Lefty, but this is a pick based on fact. Four Top 5 finishes here in 8 years. 2014 saw rounds of 67 & 63 and if Phil puts four decent rounds together he could make 25/1 look silly.
I really wanted to get Hideki Matsuyama in here somewhere. I try and limit the outrights to two picks and he is a little short at 16s for me. However 9/4 for a Top 10 finish seems a really decent price in what is for the PGA Tour an average if not weak event overall. My Top 20 choice is Louis O. Again. 2/1? That's going in every weekend acca of mine!
First Round Leader. I so want to nail this. Been close a few times and I repeat myself every week, but it's a great fun market for small stakes. Once again there are a lot of players in the field at huge odds, capable of one really low round.
Ryo Ishikawa, Sean O'Hair, Daniel Berger, my old favourite Morgan Hoffman. My pound this week goes to …. Sangmoon Bae. Or Bae Sangmoon. Or whatever they are calling him this week. He featured prominently at Sawgrass and 100/1 5 Places will be something for a bit of entertainment.
Best Bets
Wells Fargo Championship – Louis Oosthuizen each way (45/1 Betfred)
Wells Fargo Championship – Phil Mickleson each way (25/1 BetVictor)
Wells Fargo Championship – Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 Finish (9/4 Paddy Power)
Wells Fargo Championship – Louis Oosthuizen Top 20 Finish (2/1 888 Sport)
Wells Fargo Championship – Sangmoon Bae First Round Leader (100/1 Bet365)
