GOLF analyst Lewis Blain (@LewisBlainSport) shares his betting thoughts ahead of the Tenerife Open.
Tenerife Open | 29th April – 2nd May 2021 | Sky Sports
The European Tour heads 30 miles across the ocean to Tenerife for the next stage of the Canary Islands swing, with back-to-back events at the Golf Costa Adeje.
Last week in Gran Canaria, we managed to clinch the 35/1 winner as Garrick Higgo brought home a resounding victory – much of the same will apply here, given we are once again at another short, resort-like track that is more meant for your average joe than a professional.
It's also the first time since 2003 we arrive at this course, which is rather unique in the fact that it has six par-3s and five par-5s. The players here should tear it apart, which is why there are three close to the front I like.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing either of the last two winners, Higgo and John Catlin. They can, and should, go well again, whilst Max Kieffer has to be tempting after successive runner-up finishes. He too is likely to run it close again, but having not won in over 200 ET events, I won't rue him winning at 30/1 or lower.
It's another in that range that'll kickstart the staking plan – Laurie Canter (30/1 William Hill). He is one of three names that I instantly backed when the odds came out, and even though it has come in a fair bit, I still think it is value.
The Englishman is on the cusp of finally making that breakthrough and there can't be an easier venue to do so, especially for someone who was amongst the Tour's most prolific birdie-makers last year.
He came narrowly close in Portugal, when we backed him there. We now know that is certainly a good pointer following Higgo's triumph, and contended over the first two rounds at the free-scoring English Championship won by Andy Sullivan. Further form across the Middle East swing, where events were won by Paul Casey and Dustin Johnson, could prove to be lucrative, too.
The big-hitting Canter will surely relish this test.
Next up are three players from last week's plan in Guido Migliozzi (33/1 Betfair), Connor Syme (45/1 Ladbrokes), and Pep Angles (70/1 Ladbrokes). As I outlined above, I think this will be similar and the prices on these three are still very appealing, especially after what we saw from them all in Gran Canaria.
Migliozzi, we know wins at this sort of test, having claimed the Kenya Open, whilst also finishing well in Qatar and Oman. Last week's T15 was respectable and he can build on that here, especially as the Italian ranks 12th for par-3 scoring and 37th for par-5 scoring on Tour overall.
Syme should have clinched a runner-up spot alongside Kieffer but a quadruple bogey during his final round saw him slip down the leaderboard. He still held on for a share of the spoils at 80/1. We may be getting half the price but had he finished second, then I imagine he would be as short as Guido and Laurie above. The Scotsman's form across England, Spain, Oman, Mauritius, Portugal and now Gran Canaria should hold up well here. He makes a lot of birdies and has the distance off the tee.
Finally, Angles went very under-the-radar and has only dropped from 100/1 to 70/1 despite finishing three shots outside of a place-finish. After a poor opening round, the Spaniard went 64-65-67, so hopefully he can keep that up here. Again, he finished 2nd to Higgo in Portugal, so that form should hold up here if he's on his game once again.
I'll end the selections with two long shots in Alejandro Del Rey (125/1 Ladbrokes) and Julien Guerrier (150/1 Betfair).
Del Rey, in short, carries huge length off the tee and loves to rack up low scores. He ranks third this field for birdies and finished T21 in Gran Canaria, and has a lot of form in Europe on the Alps Tour. Matt Wallace was a big success there before he made a name for himself on the ET, so perhaps the unknown Spaniard can go well again this week.
And Guerrier looks a little too long, given his record in Oman and Portugal over the last few years. He was only five shots behind Canter at the Portugal Masters, for example and we're taking him at 30s. He is also third in this field for par-5 scoring, so he if can keep that up, then he should eat up those five par-5s, where scoring will be ever so key to being in the mix come Sunday.
Best Bets
Tenerife Open – Laurie Canter (30/1 each-way William Hill)
Tenerife Open – Guido Migliozzi (33/1 each-way Betfair)
Tenerife Open – Connor Syme (45/1 each-way Ladbrokes)
Tenerife Open – Pep Angles (70/1 each-way Ladbrokes)
Tenerife Open – Alejandro Del Rey (125/1 each-way Ladbrokes)
Tenerife Open – Julien Guerrier (150/1 each-way Betfair)
