GOLF analyst Lewis Blain (@LewisBlainSport) shares his betting thoughts ahead of the Porsche European Open from Germany.
Porsche European Open | 5th-8th September 2019 | Sky Sports
Green Eagle Golf Club in Germany hosts the competition for the third straight year.
- Par 73 – 7,830 yards at its peak.
- Challenging parklands course.
- Bunkering (huge) and water (on 17 holes) as the main defence.
- Big greens
Key Pointers:
- Long, accurate tee game required (SG: OTT, Total Driving)
- Greens in Regulation
- Par-5 scoring, there's 5 of them!
- Bogey Avoidance as the majority of scoring is done on par-5s, plus the danger of water/bunkers.
- SG: APP
Sam Horsfield (50/1 Betfair)
A previous winner here is Jordan Smith, who if he was in better form would have been number one on the staking list, but a player who I feel is of a rather similar profile is Sam Horsfield.
The Englishman has been nurtured by Ian Poulter, a 12-time European Tour and Ryder Cup hero, so that's one benefit. He's been finding his feet lately and is in some very decent nick, so much so I can't ignore him this week. It's been three straight cuts made including a T3 (Czech) and T10 (Scandi). Last time out in Germany (only six starts ago for him) he was T21.
He's a pretty decent driver of the ball, ranking 27th for SG: OTT – long and straight-ish. Ideal profile.
Paul Waring (80/1 Betfair)
We were on Waring only two weeks ago when he was defending his Scandinavian Masters title where he was T20 thanks to a final round 65, but that doesn't tell us the whole story as just three shots separated a whole host of players from T5 to T20, just needed one more solid round to have been up there.
He's one of the best fits for this, for me anyway – 2nd for GIR, 20th for bogey avoidance 22nd for par-5 scoring, 23rd for SG: OTT, 29th for SG: APP. He didn't miss a cut last week, in fact, he's only missed two in 14 events this season, one at a tough Valderrama.
Yet, this week he is this big, seems strange but maybe it is the fall down from the elite group of players that are teeing it up this week at the front of the market.
Victor Dubuisson (80/1 Betfair)
I am going to risk something on the notoriously unpredictable Dubuisson – not because you don't know what you'll get playing-wise, but because there's a risk he withdraws before this preview even goes out or seconds before he's supposed to tee off – so please go smaller on him.
He should like this course as he also statistically rates out quite well and it wasn't too long we thought he was having some sort of renaissance.
He's 18th for SG: OTT, up there for total driving – very accurate, fairly long, 29th for GIR and 37th for bogey avoidance. We just really need him to tee it up and get off to a nice start.
Sean Crocker (100/1 Betfair)
Probably my favourite bet in the staking plan. If this guy is legit, then this is exactly his test. We've seen this year why we should stick with talented first-timers ala Erik van Rooyen etc. Adri Arnaus and Matthias Schwab both nearly did it for us last week getting us two 90/1 places, Crocker is of similar ilk.
He's a big-hitting American, who is rather rated on tour. Last week he picked up a T28, which is so unflattering for his performance – he recorded all four rounds in the 60s, and again these tightly contested leaderboards are so bunched at the top. He was just four shots off a T8 for example.
In terms of stats, Crocker is 6th for driving distance (just needs a little accuracy), 12th for SG: OTT, 43rd for GIR and 53rd for bogey avoidance. He needs to do better on the par-5s but his distance should really help out. He can reach some of these par-4s too and at three figures has every chance to be playing better than odds suggest.
Ashley Chesters (200/1 Betfair)
Now for my risk of the week. Chesters isn't a bad player at all but he's not got the length, in theory, to contend here – but he will take inspiration from Richard McEvoy's plodder victory last year. He's very accurate off the tee, 5th on tour actually and also rates out 23rd for GIR and 38th for bogey avoidance.
In 2017 he was the midway leader round here on a rain-soaked, waterlogged Green Eagle course but eventually fell down to T8, so he must surely like it here and he had all the elements to disregard his lack of distance back then too.
He's managed four top-20s this season but faces the risk of losing his tour card if he doesn't put in a few more solid rounds of golf. You're able to get 6/1 on a top-20 if you really wanted. A risky one, but calculated at the odds.
Best Bets
Porsche European Open – Sam Horsfield (50/1 each-way Betfair)
Porsche European Open – Victor Dubuisson (80/1 each-way Betfair)
Porsche European Open – Paul Waring (80/1 each-way Betfair)
Porsche European Open – Sean Crocker (100/1 each-way Betfair)
Porsche European Open – Ashley Chesters (200/1 each-way Betfair)
