GOLF analyst Lewis Blain (@LewisBlainSport) shares his betting thoughts ahead of the Canary Islands Championship.
Canary Islands Championship |6th-9th May 2021 | Sky Sports
The European Tour remains in Tenerife for the final instalment of the Canary Islands swing, though we'll be visiting the same course as last week – Golf Costa Adeje.
We've seen this initiative work a couple of times now with events in Wales, Cyprus and Kenya.
Dean Burmester clinched the title on Sunday with a winning score of 25-under-par so that only emphasises how easy this resort track is for the professional player. It would not be a surprise to see someone record a score in the 50s this week as Scott Jamieson came close with a 61 on Friday afternoon.
The South African is a big-hitter who can eat up the five par-5s, so clearly long-game is a huge asset here. There are also six par-3s, so precision iron play and solid scrambling will see the cream rise to the top again.
There are plenty of worthy names at the front of the market and as I explained in last week's preview, don't be surprised if any of Garrick Higgo, John Catlin and now Burmester go in again.
However, it is Sean Crocker (25/1 Betfair) that opens the staking plan. It was a toss-up between him and Sami Valimaki for me, but I think the American is overdue a win. He has been hitting it as good as he ever has, he has just been let down by a poor putter but good weeks with the flat-stick fluctuates the most of anyone's game, and we'll only need him to get it together here for him to challenge at these odds.
A T18 was encouraging enough and only emphasises how little improvement he needs to get amongst the mix over the course of the four days. Some decent finishes across Kenya, Saudi and South Africa should correlate nicely. Let's hope he gives us a great chance this week.
Next up is Englihsman Paul Waring (45/1 Betfair), who caught my eye during last week's tournament. On the face of it, a T28 is nothing to shout home about and he's another who sees the putter go stone-cold far too often but I feel he is trending towards a big result in the near future, and there won't be many easier tests than this.
His form at similar venues and tracks correlates nicely, too. A win at the windy Nordea Masters is a nice place to start but he has frequently shown up in this neck of the woods at the Portugal Masters, as well as in Spain and a few desert courses like Dubai and in Morrocco.
He's also another big-hitter off the tee.
Speaking of which, Scott Hend (50/1 Betfair)‘s eighth-place finish at the weekend earns him a place on the card. Arguably, he is one of the longest off the tee in this field but he also has a touch of class around the greens, as most Aussies do.
With so many par-5s, he truly has the skillset required to smash it around here, as was evident last week. His putter behaved in the final three rounds, so he will have to keep that up once again whilst his driving (1st, 4th and 8th in 3/4 rounds) and approach game (2nd and 3rd GIR in 2/4 rounds) suggest he's playing very nicely indeed.
Someone who is hard to get right but is worth chancing this week is Gavin Green (70/1 Betfair). Truth be told, had he teed it up last week, he would have made the plan.
A missed cut and T41 in Kenya last time out is hardly encouraging either, though this course really is right up his street. He followed up a MC in Cyprus with a top-10 finish, so that only shows he can pop up out of nowhere when the venue suits.
He is yet to win on the European Tour but on the Asian Development Tour, he would thrive on these resort-like venues and was more than capable of going low – mainly down to his sheer power and precision around the greens. At these odds, it's hard to refuse a little go.
I'll also back Joakim Lagergren (70/1 Betfair) to clinch his second ET title, having clinched his first at the Sicilian Open in 2018. There are some parallels to be had there – a resort course by the ocean, where low-scoring was required. That vein of form has held strong recently, where he was T3 in Portugal and T8 in Dubai.
Last week's T18 is no great shakes but does present some value as his odds haven't really been affected too much. The Swede is strong on the par-3s and can surely get into contention with a similar week.
And finally, I'll throw a long-shot into the mix in Edo Molinari (200/1 Betfair), who showed some life here last week. After six straight missed cuts, the Italian and brother of 2018 Open Championship winner Francesco, finished T28. A poor final round meant he didn't stand a chance at contending for at least a place but given he showed a little something, he's worth chancing at 200/1.
It's easy to forget that he's a three-time winner on the ET and has recorded top-10s in majors. He's been that poor in recent years. He performed better here than Guido Migliozzi, who has let us down in the past two tournaments, yet the fellow Italian is a best-price of 28 – of course, a lot more stacks up in his favour but for a dart throw, Edo makes a lot of appeal.Canary Islands Championship – Sean Crocker (25/1 each-way Betfair)
Best Bets
Canary Islands Championship – Sean Crocker (25/1 each-way Betfair)
Canary Islands Championship – Paul Waring (45/1 each-way Betfair)
Canary Islands Championship – Scott Hend (50/1 each-way Betfair)
Canary Islands Championship – Gavin Green (70/1 each-way Betfair)
Canary Islands Championship – Joakim Lagergren (70/1 each-way Betfair)
Canary Islands Championship – Joakim Lagergren (70/1 each-way Betfair)
Canary Islands Championship – Edo Molinari (200/1 each-way Betfair)
