GOLF analyst Lewis Blain (@LewisBlainSport) shares his betting thoughts ahead of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship from St Andrews.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship | 26th-29th September 2019 | Sky Sports
Wentworth was won by one of the good guys in Danny Willett, who has mounted an immense comeback from the darkness. After winning the Masters, the Englishman tumbled down the rankings and suffered from multiple injuries but in the last year he has come back and won two huge events, this one, and the DP Tour Championship.
Now we head to Scotland for the Alfred Dunhill Links for our last look at what the British Isles has to offer – Lucas Bjerregaard defends his title and it's one that Tyrell Hatton has won twice and he was only one shot off completing a potential three-peat.
Three courses are in rotation – St Andrew's, Carnoustie and Kingsbarn. All Par 72s within an hour or so of each other. It's not the greatest watch over the first few days as players are paired with an amateur, often a celeb or a big name. For instance, Justin Rose is paired with his mate Justin Timberlake. All three are used before the cut and St Andrew's gets the nod for Sunday.
The weather forecast looks terrible so it makes this event seem even more of a lottery but par-4 scoring, GIR, SG: around-the-green and birdies are the key metrics – on top of links experience. The Portugal and Qatar Masters have always been a good pointer too.
Matt Wallace (30/1 Coral)
There are some very worthy favourites, but due to the nature of this event I am more than happy to forgo the front of the market – Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm front the betting with Rose, Tommy Fleetwood and Open winner Shane Lowry close behind.
So, the first man in is Matt Wallace who's career trajectory is on the sharpest increase of anyone I've seen on the European Tour. The Englishman won three times last year but is yet to record the W this season on Tour – though, he's had five top-three finishes so it could have easily happened.
He's shown life on the links since becoming a pro on the ET and will have grown up playing links-type courses in British conditions. He also played the Alps Tour and there's a couple of windy destinations there you'd imagine. He can make birdies, can score on par-4s and has the winners mentality to get through the strain of a different week. He's my favourite play this week.
Robert MacIntyre (45/1 SkyBet)
We then back the Scotsman Bobby Mac yet again as I am convinced he will win soon. We bet him last week so the same reasons carry over to here.
It's his first season on the ET and he should have won a couple of times already. T6 in his first major – the Open. He finds greens (22nd), scores birdies and scores on par-4s. That's enough for me.
Marcus Kinhult (80/1 Betfair)
This young Swede is one of the most talented prospects on Tour and I was gutted I missed his first career win, which was the British Masters on a links course.
Being Scandinavian means he has played in the treacherous windy-rain conditions that we will see this weekend which only bodes well. Of all the Scandis he looks like the best value play. He's made two top-20s in his last three starts which is a positive and popped in Qatar last year.
Gavin Green (125/1 SkyBet)
Let's hope Gavin continues to find the greens – he ranks 8th on the ET for GIR which is a big pointer this week and he's another player who is highly rated yet that elusive win has so far escaped him.
He went T8-T9 on two tough setups at Valderrama and in the Irish Open which stands out to me. He also top-20'd at the British Masters this year as well as in two of his last four events. A nice shot at three figures for sure.
Paul Waring (150/1 Betfair)
Another Englishman finishes the staking plan and just like the others he knows how to play these conditions having grown up in the country. His first ET win came last year at the Nordea Masters – a Scandinavian wind test.
Waring has also popped in Portugal, at the British Masters and at a number of events across Ireland and Scotland. His price is truly absurd this week considering he's not completely out of sorts, recording seven straight cuts and a T7 at the Irish Open too. I can only think the strength of the field has played some part. He's 6th on Tour for GIR and inside the top-50 for birdies and par-4 scoring.
Best Bets
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – Matt Wallace (30/1 each-way Coral)
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – Robert MacIntyre (45/1 each-way SkyBet)
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – Marcus Kinhult (80/1 each-way Betfair)
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – Gavin Green (125/1 each-way SkyBet)
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – Paul Waring (150/1 each-way Betfair)
