Andrea Pirlo may have been admired from all quarters following Italy’s penalty defeat of England in the quarter finals but his team have been largely written off against the Germans – and it’s not hard to see why.
The 4/1 Italians have never lost to Germany in a competitive match and historically perform well in semi-finals, boasting an 80% success rate in reaching the final, but their stats for this competition are less impressive.
They have scored just four goals in the competition so far, a record low for a side appearing in a European Championship semi-final, and that despite taking the most shots (59) and recording the most accurate crosses (17) from open play.
Meanwhile the German machine has rolled on, extending their winning streak to 15 competitive games – a national record – and have scored in 20 consecutive matches. Joachim Loew’s men have netted 51 times in that sequence and are 7/5 to knock Over 1.5 goals past Italy with Stan James.
The same price is available for Over 2.5 goals in the game and with 12 of Germany’s last 13 games seeing at least three, there is temptation in backing overs. Italy, however, spoil the party given all of their games at Euro 2012 have seen two or less strikes. Their defence, widely considered to be ‘less Italian’ than ever, is still second only to Spain thus far and conceded just twice in qualifying.
Cesare Prandelli’s attack certainly looked wasteful against England – spurning numerous golden opportunities to break the stubborn resistance they faced – but they could find more space against an attacking German outfit. Both Teams to Score pays 6/5 at a number of bookies, including Stan James and BlueSquare.
WLB Best Bet – With Germany available at 20/21 with BetVictor to win in 90 minutes, it seems the We Love Betting best bet is the most obvious. If you fancy a bigger price, however, try Germany to win by one goal at 11/4 with Ladbrokes as it has paid out in three of their four games so far.
Key Trends
- Germany are the only side with a 100% record at Euro 2012 and have now won 15 straight competitive games.
- Germany have scored in their last 20 games, finding the net 51 times in total. They also have the best attack at this year’s competition, scoring 9 times.
- Italy have scored just four times in the competition, a record low for a side reaching the semi-finals, despite taking the most shots (59) recording the most accurate crosses from open play (17).
