CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Serie A on Saturday as Genoa entertain Inter Milan.
Genoa vs Inter Milan | Saturday 25th July 2020, 18:30 | Premier Sports
As the Serie A conclusion draws nearer to its close, Italy’s oldest active club have three games left to secure their place in next season’s top flight. Davide Nicola’s hosts currently sit four points ahead of Lecce but they have arguably the tougher fixtures to come.
Indeed, Genoa welcome an Inter Milan side on Saturday who at this stage are unlikely to take the title race to the wire, but they can fight it out with Atalanta for runners-up.
Genoa are coming into this one off the back of two home victories against fellow strugglers, Lecce and SPAL. Unfortunately, they’ve lost seven out of eight home games against sides in the top half and in those games they’ve conceded twice or more in all – not a record you want when you’re playing host to the division’s second top goalscorers on their travels.
Antonio Conte and his Inter side certainly have the upper hand here and all the statistics point to a dominating victory for the Nerazzurri. Inter are unbeaten away from home since the restart and are also unbeaten away from home against every side they’ve played in the bottom half.
Inter have been slightly inconsistent recently though, in the two games they’ve drawn since the return, they took the lead before conceding and as a result dropping four extra points. If even those two games could’ve seen Inter hold out for wins, the title race would’ve been enthralling with just three games to go.
Nevertheless, Champions League football is secured for next season and they will want to finish the campaign on a high note, starting by brushing aside Genoa with relative ease.
Key stats
Genoa:
- Commit on average 16.1 fouls per game when playing at home (second most).
- Receive on average 13.3 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 6/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/8 occasions.
- Have scored in 8/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
- Have conceded in 8/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
Inter Milan:
- Commit on average 15.8 fouls per game when playing away (most in the league).
- Receive on average 11.9 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 9/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 9/9 occasions.
- Have scored in 9/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- Have conceded in 5/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
Key facts:
- Inter Milan have won their last THREE league games against Genoa by an aggregate of 13-0.
- Genoa have won their last TWO home games – they last won THREE in a row back in 2018.
- Inter have collected more points away from home this season than any other side in Serie A.
- Inter have scored at least FOUR in their last THREE games against Genoa in all competitions.
- Inter’s Roberto Gagliardini has scored FIVE goals in SEVEN appearances against Genoa – more than any other opponent.
- Antonio Conte is unbeaten in his SEVEN previous clashes with Genoa in Serie A (W4 D3).
Analysis
Inter have utilised the 3-5-2 formation recently and they’ve been racking up the corner count. Since the return of football post-lockdown, Genoa have faced two of the top seven at home and have seen their opponents have corner counts of 8 and 9 against Napoli and Juventus respectively.
Inter have collected more points away from home this season than any other side and only Atalanta have scored more goals than them. Given that the Nerazzurri have scored at least two goals in every away game since the restart, they’ve scored at least four in their last few meetings with Genoa and they’ve won their last three against the hosts, I’d fancy Inter to win and score at least two.
One bet I also really like the look of, and is a great price, is for Inter to win, Inter to have the most corners and Genoa to have the most cards. This is a bet that has landed in four of the last five meetings between the sides. Genoa average 2.82 cards per game at home this season and have also seen more red cards than any other side.
Best Bets
Genoa vs Inter Milan – Inter Milan to win, Inter Milan Over 1 Goals, Inter Over 3 Corners (5/4 Bet365)
Genoa vs Inter Milan – Genoa Under 2 Goals, Inter Milan Over 1 Card, Inter Milan Over 1 Goals (15/8 Bet365)
Genoa vs Inter Milan – Inter Milan to win, Inter Mian Most Corners, Genoa Most Cards (5/1 Betfair)
