CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Thursday night's showdown between Spurs and Fulham.
Fulham vs Tottenham | Thursday 4th March 2021, 18:00 | BT Sport
Jose Mourinho and his side travel to Southwest London looking to continue their excellent record against The Cottagers.
Spurs have won 10 of their last 12 EPL matches against Fulham, conceding just eight goals in that time and never conceding more than once in any of those. They’ve got back into their groove of late and it has coincided with the fact Gareth Bale find himself in a purple patch.
Fulham also looks much improved. However, their performances have not reaped the results that they have probably deserved. Nevertheless, Scott Parker will be hoping his side can cause an upset here and claim a much needed three points as we go into the business end of the season.
Fulham:
● Commit on average 12.5 fouls per game when playing at home this season.
● When playing against the top five most fouled sides at home, Fulham commits on average 12.75 fouls per game.
● Receive on average 10.2 fouls per game when playing at home this season.
● Have seen 2+ cards in 4/4 home games against the top 5 most fouled.
● In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ on 2/4 occasions.
● Have won just one of their last 14 EPL matches against Spurs.
● No side has scored fewer home goals this season than Fulham – scoring just eight in their 13 games at Craven Cottage.
Team news:
● Ola Aina came off the break at Crystal Palace, though Scott Parker said the decision was tactical rather than due to injury, Antonee Robinson could start at left-back as a result.
● Ivan Cavaleiro may start from the right having replaced Bobby Reid in the second, though Parker is unlikely to make wholesale changes.
● Aleksandar Mitrovic returned to action from the bench against Palace and may have to settle for subs spot again here, while Marek Rodak will be assessed, but Tom Cairney misses out.
Tottenham:
● Commit on average 10.4 fouls per game when playing away this season.
● Receive on average 13 fouls per game when playing away this season.
● Have seen 2+ cards in 0/3 away games against sides in the bottom 5.
● In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ on 2/3 occasions.
● Have only won more EPL London derbies against West Ham than they have versus Fulham.
Team News:
● Serge Aurier returned to the starting XI for Sunday's 2-0 win over Burnley and should keep his place at right-back.
● The Ivorian's recovery means Giovani Lo Celso is Tottenham's only injury concern, but the Argentine is back in training and will be available later this month.
● After such a fine showing against the Clarets, Jose Mourinho could name an unchanged XI for the trip to Fulham, which would see Gareth Bale keep his place in attack, but the Spurs boss has options.
Referee: David Coote
● Averages 3.14 yellow cards per game and awards an average of 24.33 free kicks per game.
Analysis
My first pick is a Bet Builder of Fulham to see 2+ cards and for them to score fewer than two goals. No side has scored fewer goals on home soil than Fulham in the EPL this season. This exact bet has landed in 8 of their 13 home games this season and with Tottenham being the second most fouled side in the league away from home this season, I fancy it to land again here.
The Cottagers are fighting for their lives and will be wanting to keep things tight, given the resurgence of Tottenham’s forward line lately and so I’m expecting chances for the home side to be limited and for David Coote to be writing a couple of Fulham players name down in his book. This bet is odds on in most places and I expect the price to drop as we approach kick-off.
My second pick is for Fulham to see the most booking points here. They’ve seen the most booking points in 10 of their 13 home games this season. When they’ve played on home soil against sides who feature in the top five most fouled, they’ve seen the most booking points in 3 out of 4 of them (tieing in the other with two each).
Of the three matches Spurs have played away to sides in the bottom five, they’ve not seen two or more cards in any of them, I think Fulham land this line comfortably.
Best Bets
Fulham vs Tottenham – Fulham Over 1.5 Cards and Fulham Under 1.5 Goals (11/10 William Hill)
Fulham vs Tottenham -Fulham Most Booking Points (11/8 Skybet)
