EVERTON take on Newcastle on Saturday in the Premier League. Marcus Ally (@Marcus_Ally_4) oversees the encounter.
Everton vs Newcastle | Saturday 30th January 2021, 12:30 | BT Sport
Carlo Ancelotti’s Everton play host to arguably the worst team in the Premier League right now. Steve Bruce’s Newcastle have been delighted to welcome back star man Allan Saint-Maximin in recent weeks but will it be enough to galvanise a squad that looks as if it is not playing for the manager?
The Magpies have lost six on the bounce including to rock bottom Sheffield United, twice without scoring against Arsenal along with to an out of form Leeds side last time out.
There is no value in backing the hosts outright who have overperformed to be competing for the top-six according to Expected Goals (xG), however as an anti-Magpies play Everton are rightful strong favourites.
The process
Jordan Pickford will be disappointed about Youri Tielemans’ equaliser for Leicester in their last match, however the controversial England no. 1 shot stopper has been much improved this term and has contributed to his side letting in just 22 from 26.5 xG goals, though it would not be a shock to see a regression kick and the Toffees fall away from top six contention.
They have also scored 29 goals from 24.4 expected, an even larger overperformance, James Rodriguez’s screamer against the Foxes was a low probability strike as they went on to lose the xG goals battle 0.65 – 1.15. The Colombian will be licking his lips at the time and space he may get with the Magpies likely to sit back in a low block.
Newcastle are still trending as a team who will avoid relegation but their drop off has been alarming. With Sheffield United and West Bromwich Albion looking destined for the drop, the Toon's recent form suggests they could join Fulham in the scrap to avoid the final relegation spot. Their process is sustainable, scoring 19 from 20.5 expected and conceding 34 from 33.6.
Goals?
Unders would pave the way for me, both these sides like to get a foothold in the game before springing out in offensive passages.
- Everton have scored in eight of 10.
- Everton have conceded in six of 10.
- Everton have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Everton have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
- Newcastle have scored in three of 10.
- Newcastle have conceded in nine of 10.
- Newcastle have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
Newcastle will try to make it ugly, drag the hosts down to their level, in the end I expect the Toffees’ attacking endeavour and quality to shine through.
Best Bets
Everton vs Newcastle – Everton -1 Asian Handicap (26/25 bet365)
Everton vs Newcastle – Everton to win and Under 3.5 Goals (23/20 RedZone)
