EVERTON welcome Burnley in Saturday's early Premier League encounter. Rob Mason (@Sturdys29) delivers his betting analysis.
Everton vs Burnley| Saturday 13th March 2021, 17:30 | Sky Sports
It’s sixth versus 15th in the Premier League, as Everton welcome Burnley for the 17:30 Saturday evening game.
It was a disappointing showing for the Toffees last time out as they went down 2-0 to Chelsea. Carlo Ancelotti’s men never really looked like getting anything from the game and will be looking for a better performance against the Clarets.
Everton are however still in the hunt for a Champions League spot and that is thanks mainly due to their away form rather than at home. At Goodison, Everton have won only one of their last six in the league (one win, one draw and four losses).
The performance of winger Richarlison will certainly be important for the Toffees. The Brazilian has now bagged six goals in his last seven games in all competitions.
Sean Dyche’s hosts picked up another valuable point in their bid for Premier League safety against Arsenal in their latest outing. The Lancashire club defended well throughout with the Gunners, coming close to getting three points hitting the post in injury time.
Worryingly for Burnley supporters, their recent lack of picking up three points is a concerning trend. The Clarets have now only won one of their last nine Premier League games.
The betting angles
In the outright market, Everton are 5/6 with the draw at 5/2 and Burnley are 7/2 for the win. It is a tough one to call in with Everton been so inconsistent at home and the same can also be said about Burnley’s away form.
I feel Everton are too short at 5/6 and it is hard not to favour the draw. Burnley have drawn four of their last five and the stalemate must be considered at 5/2. On this occasion I will avoid the outright market and look instead to Bet365’s Bet Builder.
In each of the last four meetings Under 2.5 Goals has landed. This season Under 2.5 has landed in 71% of Burnley games in the league and for Everton 56% of the time.
The second part of my Bet Builder is to look towards a limited number of cards.
Jonathan Moss is the man with the whistle and averages 2.41 cards (the third-lowest number in the league on average). In the last 10 games Moss has officiated, he has not given Over 2 Cards to any team on one occasion.
When adding Under 2.5 alongside Under 3 Everton Cards and Burnley to also have Under 3 Cards we get odds of 11/8 and is a price I am keen to get involved with.
One player I do like in the player props market is Ashley Westwood. The English central midfielder has had a few more shots of late. In his last six league games, Westwood has registered at least one shot in four of those games and priced at 5/4 with SkyBet it is worth considering.
On all four of those occasions Westwood has had a shot, it has arrived from outside the box and priced at 23/10 with Poker Stars, it is a price I am keen to get involved with, to get some extra value.
My longshot for the game comes from Paddy Power’s Whoscored Man of the Match market. I expect the game to be tight, with Everton putting on the pressure, requiring Burnley to be resolute throughout the game.
The player that stands out with the price on offer is Burnley captain Ben Mee. The centre back actually has the highest average rating this season for the Clarets and has already received the MOM award on two occasions. Priced at 22/1 it looks to big to me eye and is worth small stake.
Best Bets
Everton vs Burnley – Under 3 Goals, Under 3 Everton Cards, Under 3 Burnley Cards (11/8 Bet365)
Everton vs Burnley – Ashley Westwood to have 1+ shots outside the box (23/10 Poker Stars)
Everton vs Burnley – Ben Mee WhoScored Man of the Match (22/1 Betfair)
