THE European season continues its relentless quest for conclusion on Sunday and Jack Wright (@bet_shop_boys ) is on-hand to preview his favourite fancies.
Roma vs Inter Milan | Sunday 19th July 2020, 20:45 | Premier Sports
What a way to end the weekend as the entertainment factory that is Serie A serves us up what looks like being a cracker in the capital.
By picking up only two points from the last nine available, league leaders Juventus left the door slightly ajar for their nearest rivals to stay in the title hunt ahead of their game with Lazio on Monday evening.
Atalanta surprisingly didn’t capitalise, spurning a 1-0 lead to take just a point from their trip to Verona, now it is over to Inter Milan to try and close the gap at the top of the table just to three points as they travel to fifth placed Roma.
Paulo Fonceca’s hosts have their own agenda though as they look to secure a return to European football, off the back of three straight wins they sit four points clear of seventh-placed Napoli but only one point ahead of in-form Milan in sixth, albeit with a game in-hand.
Both sides come in to this full of confidence and needing to claim all three points which really should make for a fascinating watch, so I am looking to combine a few markets to put a bet together at good odds.
Goals
The Giallorossi have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 10 of their last 12 league games while their opponents’ last eight Serie A games have also crossed that line, and when meeting here at the Stadio Olimpico, four of the last five have seen three or more goals – the last two of which had four, ending 2-2 and 1-3.
With both sides also combining to have 70% (46/66) of their total games this season feature more than two goals it’s with confidence I can add Over 2.5 Goals to the bet.
Corners
We have been here a couple of times before in my pieces for WLB – Roma at home = Corners.
145 home flag kicks won is 20 more than any other club in the league and is an average of 8.53 and plays a major part in the total average of 12.41 per game. Only one of the Giallorossi's seven games since the restart has ended with single figure flag kicks and that was a close call nine – their four home games featured 11, 13, 17 and 18.
The great news for this bet is Antonio Conte’s visitors have won 92 corners away with only Atalanta winning more and having a higher average than their 5.75.
With the expectation that both sides will be bringing an attack-minded approach to this game we should see action at both ends with the reverse fixture seeing a total of 11, although the home side have it in their locker to hit double-digits single-handedly, as they have done on nine occasions this campaign with a high of 17 back in November. In conclusion, a corner total of at least 10 should be well within reach.
Cards
Serie A fixtures and cards have gone together like spaghetti carbonara and frascati, although Sunday night's game has one of the leagues less card-happy referees in charge.
Marco Di Bello has officiated 14 top-flight games in Italy this season giving 60 yellows and just one red at an average of 4.36 cards per game, but dig a little deeper than bare numbers and it looks a lot more interesting.
I am expecting cards for both teams in this vital clash and Signore Di Bello handed out six yellows cards in his last outing – Lazio’s home defeat to Sassuolo, four for the home side and two for the visitors. Go back further and he has awarded two or more cards to both sides in eight of his last nine matches.
Which team has he given most cards to this campaign? That would be Roma – 11 yellows from just three games – the only time in charge of an Inter game this season away at Udinese both sides received two cards apiece.
Both these sides sit in the top five of cards received when playing home and away respectively – whilst Sunday's hosts have been given more yellow cards than any other Serie A side – 103 in total plus seven reds. Barring their opening game upon resumption of the league, the capital club have been given two or more cards in each game, while the Nerazzurri are on a run of 16 games receiving two or more cautions, with only one of seven post lockdown games not seeing both sides pick up more than one card each.
When in Rome….I can only see that run continuing here. With that our bet is complete: Over 2 Goals, Over 9 Corners, Both Teams Over 1 Card (15/4 Bet 365).
Best Bets
Roma vs Inter Milan- Over 2 Goals, Over 9 Corners, Both Teams Over 1 Card (15/4 Bet 365)
