CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from the continental action on Saturday.
Milan vs. Bologna | Saturday 18th July 2020, 20:45 | Premier Sports
The Rossoneri welcome the crazy gang of Serie A to the San Siro as they look to cement their place in the top seven and continue their quest to finish in a European spot.
Stefano Pioli’s side are currently in a tussle with Napoli for sixth spot in the league but with Gennaro Gattuso’s side not in action until Sunday, Milan can take the initiative and put the pressure on.
They’ve been in excellent form since the restart winning all three home games, most notably coming from 2-0 down to claim victory over Juventus just over a week ago.
Bologna have had a relatively successful return to post-lockdown football too, on their travels they’ve won two and drawn one which has aided them in their pursuit of a top half finish.
Key stats
Milan:
- Commit on average 13.5 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Receive on average 13.6 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 6/7 home games against sides currently in the top half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 5/7 occasions.
- Have scored in 5/7 home games against sides in the top half.
- Have conceded in 5/7 home games against sides in the top half.
Bologna:
- Commit on average 15.9 fouls per game away from home (third most).
- Receive on average 14.4 fouls per game away from home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 7/7 games away to sides currently in the top half.
- In those games the opposition have seen 2+ cards on 5/7 occasions.
- Have scored in 6/7 away games against sides currently in the top half.
- Have conceded in 7/7 away games against sides currently in the top half.
Key facts:
- Milan have won SEVEN of their last EIGHT league games against Bologna, drawing the other.
- Bologna have conceded more goals against Milan than they have any other top flight opponent.
- Milan have only lost THREE of their last 39 league games against Bologna at home.
- Milan have scored at least TWO goals in all SEVEN league games played since the restart.
- Since the beginning of December, Bologna have won SIX Serie A away games. No side has performed better in this period.
- Bologna coach Mihaljovic has never won against Milan in his managerial career.
Analysis
Quite simply, it is integral that Milan win this game if they want to stay in the hunt for European football next season. They currently sit level on points with sixth placed Napoli and with Gennaro Gattuso’s men playing at home the following day, Milan can pile the pressure on and leapfrog them into sixth, for 24 hours at least.
Bologna have little to play for as they are assured of playing top flight football next season but are a good 10 points off the battle for Europe.
Regardless of their motivation, Bologna are still one of the dirtier sides in Europe and they won’t let Milan have it all their own way, I expect them to be aggressive as they deal with wave after wave of Milan attack.
Mihajlovic’s side have conceded more goals against Milan than any other side in Serie A and I think they’ll let a couple in here as we draw nearer to the seasons end.
Each Team Over 1 Card and Milan to score Over 1 Goal (5/4 Bet365) plus, Milan 2+ Goals/ Milan 6+ Corners/Bologna 3+ Cards (10/3 Betfair) are my preferred plays.
Cagliari vs. Sassuolo | Saturday 18th July 2020, 18:30 | Premier Sports
In-form Sassuolo travel to the Sardegna Arena on Saturday to take on a Cagliari side who’ve struggled in recent weeks.
Roberto De Zerbi’s guests are in a purple patch at just the right time as they aim to finish in a European spot. Coming off of the back of a thrilling 3-3 home draw to champions elect to Juventus, they enter this fixture with their tails up and hunting three points against a side who’ve little to play for.
Cagliari look as though they’re already winding down and merely awaiting the season’s conclusion. They’ve tasted victory just once at home in their last eight games.
Walter Zenga has said his side are struggling with mental fatigue as opposed to physical and he also expressed that other players must take on different responsibilities with key man Radja Nainggolan out through injury.
Key stats
Cagliari:
- Commit on average 14.1 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Receive on average 11.6 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 8/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 5/8 occasions.
- Have scored in 5/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
- Have conceded in 8/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
Sassuolo:
- Commit on average 13 fouls per game when playing away.
- Receive on average 16 fouls per game when playing away (most in the league).
- Have seen 2+ cards in 7/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 8/9 occasions.
- Have scored in 6/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
- Have conceded in 6/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
Key facts:
- Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet against Cagliari in three of their last five Serie A games.
- Cagliari have won just one of their last eight home games.
- Sassuolo have won their last three away games, they could make it four for the first time in the top flight.
- Cagliari have failed to score in their last two home games.
Analysis
Sassuolo are in fine form going into this one and if result go their way and they can pick up another win on the road, they may just find themselves late comers into the battle for a European spot.
Cagliari, on the other hand, have been dismal. They’ve won just ONE of their last EIGHT home games and have failed to score in the last two of those. They can be forgiven for a lack of motivation as they have nothing else really to play for but that could spell bad news given how strong the Neroverdi are at this present moment.
When these two play, cards are usually shown in abundance and I expect that to be true here.
Given the motivations of both sides, I’d expect Sassuolo to get a result and put the pressure on those above them.
Each Team 20+ Booking Points and Over 0.5 First-Half Cards (17/20 William Hill) and Cagliari to score Under 2 Goals, Cagliari Over 1 Cards, Sassuolo Double Chance (6/5 Bet365) are where I’m heading here.
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta | Saturday 18th July 2020, 20:45 | Premier Sports
Atalanta will be looking to extend their run of scoring in 22 games straight as they visit a Hellas Verona side who are winless in their last four games.
Hellas have failed to score in just four home games this season and have lost just once at home in 2020. Ivan Jurić’s side can further strengthen their grip on a top half finish with victory here but they face an Atalanta side who are the top scorers in Serie A and third top scorers in Europe.
Atalanta have scored a staggering 93 goals this season. To put it into context, the next highest scorers in Italy are Inter Milan with 72 – over 20 fewer.
They need just three more points from their next five games to ensure Champions League football next season. But finding themselves just seven points away from Juventus in first, they’ll feel they have an outside chance of challenging Juventus for the Scudetto.
Key stats
Hellas Verona:
- Commit on average 14.1 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Receive on average 13.2 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 6/7 home games against teams in the top half and in 3/4 against the top six.
- When playing at home to teams in the top half, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/7 occasions.
- Have scored in 3/4 home games against sides currently in the top six.
- Have conceded in 4/4 home games against sides currently in the top six.
Atalanta:
- Commit on average 13.9 fouls per game when playing away.
- Receive on average 14.6 fouls per game when playing away.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 5/7 away games against sides currently in the top half.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 7/7 occasions.
- Have scored in 7/7 away games against sides currently in the top half.
- Have conceded in 6/7 away games against sides in the top half.
Key facts:
- Atalanta are the only team yet to lose a game away from home in 2020.
- Atalanta have won all three Serie A matches against Verona under current manager Gasperini.
- Atalanta have scored in each of their last 21 Serie A games.
- Verona have lost just one game at home in 2020.
- In their last meeting at the Bentegodi, Atalanta ran out as 5-0 winners.
Analysis
I’m running out of superlatives to encapsulate quite how impressive and exciting this Atalanta side have been. For them, attack is the best form of defence. No other team in Europe attempts more shots away from home on average this season. They just need to keep winning and see if those above them drop points – Inter are just a point ahead in second place.
Like many teams in action this weekend, the motivation to win is more for pride as opposed to a specific outcome for hosts Verona. They lay comfortably in midtable, nine points off of a European spot with just 5 games to go.
Every side in the top half who has played Gasperini’s men at home has picked up at least two cards. Given that I think Verona are going to have to commit some cynical fouls, as Atalanta lay siege to their goal, I fully expect Verona to join that list.
The visitors have scored in 21 games in a row. I’d be shocked if they did not extend that to 22 considering Verona have conceded against every other side in the top six they’ve played at home.
My two plays are Atalanta to score 2+ /Atalanta 5+ Corners/Hellas Verona 2+ Cards (7/5 Betfair) and Each Team Over 1 Card and Atalanta to score Over 1 Goal (11/8 Bet365).
Best Bets
Milan vs Bologna – Each Team Over 1 Card and Milan to score Over 1 Goal (5/4 Bet365)
Milan vs Bologna – Milan 2+ Goals/ Milan 6+ Corners/Bologna 3+ Cards (10/3 Betfair)
Cagliari vs Sassuolo – Each Team 20+ Booking Points and Over 0.5 First-Half Cards (17/20 William Hill)
Cagliari vs Sassuolo – Cagliari to score Under 2 Goals, Cagliari Over 1 Cards, Sassuolo Double Chance (6/5 Bet365)
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta – Atalanta to score 2+ /Atalanta 5+ Corners/Hellas Verona 2+ Cards (7/5 Betfair)
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta – Each Team Over 1 Card and Atalanta to score Over 1 Goal (11/8 Bet365)
