WINNERS galore for Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) on Saturday, can he repeat the feat on Sunday?
Lithuania v Switzerland | Sunday 19:45 | Sky Sports Interactive
Tough coupon on Sunday to be honest. My second pick is a far more confident selection but I thought I'd throw this one in too. Switzerland had an awful start to their Euro 2016 campaign, but since then they've straightened up their threads and kicked on.
Let's not forget what they did in the World Cup. They gave runners-up Argentina a torrid time in the Last 16, taking them to the dying moment of extra time before some Angel Di Maria magic knocked them out.
As mentioned above, they kicked off this campaign with a pair of deplorable results. A 2-0 loss at home to England was very disappointing but a 1-0 defeat in Slovenia was despicable. Since then it's been hugely encouraging. 4-0 wins against San Marino and Lithuania were followed by a 3-0 win at home to Estonia. Solid results.
Lithuania's 4-0 loss in Switzerland was indicative of their campaign. They've gone the opposite way of Switzerland and got worse as the qualifiers progressed. A 1-0 win over Estonia in Matchday 2 was as good as it gets for the nation but heavy defeats to the Swiss and England followed as well as a 2-0 slip up against Slovenia.
Things reached a (possible) nadir on Monday night when Igoris Pankratjevas' side lost 2-0 to Malta in a friendly. This is a side bereft of confidence.
I'll have a small bet on Switzerland -1 at odds of 6/5 with Skybet. It's not a brilliant price but certainly worth a wee dabble. These are two sides going in the opposite direction.
Sweden v Montenegro | Sunday 19:45 | Sky Sports 5
When teams are strong odds on to win (say 1/2 or shorter) the price on the Overs and Unders reacts to that and naturally pushes the Overs into a cramped price. This can be exploited from an Unders point of view if we know the favourites in question aren't promiscuous goalscorers. Sweden fall into that category today.
Incredibly 12 of the last 13 Sweden games have gone Under 2.5 Goals. That's an astonishing stat. On Sunday you can back it at 3/4 with 888 Sport. Very reasonable.
Montenegro have regressed since giving England a torrid time in the last qualifiers. Failing to beat Liechtenstein in October was a humbling moment but a 1-1 draw at home to Sweden in November offers hope.
Crucially though, seven of Montenegro's last nine games went Under 2.5 Goals and four of their five 2016 qualifiers paid out on that hunch. Very strong stats.
As mentioned above, Under 2.5 Goals is a very reasonable 3/4 but I'll aim bigger than that. I'm backing Under 2 Goals at 5/4 on BetVictor's Asian Handicap Goal Line. If exactly two are scored I get my cash back. It's just a bit of security I'm happy to court with when playing at odds-against.
Best Bets
Lithuania v Switzerland – Switzerland -1 (6/5 Skybet)
Sweden v Montenegro – Under 2 Goals Asian Handicap Goal Line (5/4 BetVictor)
