CRYSTAL PALACE host West Brom on Saturday in the Premier League. Marcus Ally (@Marcus_Ally_4) oversees the encounter.
Crystal Palace vs West Brom | Saturday 13th March 2021, 15:00 | Sky Sports
For the very first time this season I will not be opposing West Brom. Staggering I know, but with the way Crystal Palace’s season is fizzling out and Big Sam going back to former employers with a point to prove, the time has come.
In terms of attacking process this match showcases the sides with the two worst expected goals (xG) for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA) records so it may not be one for the neutral. The two managers play a defence first style which does inhibit their xG process however on current form they are without doubt two of the worst three teams in the division.
Process
Palace have overperformed this season and seen a regression in recent months, with the side struggling to score in the absence of talisman forward Wilfried Zaha, the Ivorian returned from the bench last time out at Tottenham Hotspur and struck the woodwork. Allardyce will plan well to deal with the threat he poses.
The Eagles have scored 30 from 26.4 xG and conceded 47 from 49.2 xGA, it has been an indifferent campaign from Vicente Guaita between the sticks, the defensive unit is stronger than the sum of the defensive players. Such is the efficiency of Roy Hodgson’s low block.
West Brom are rock bottom for xG and have been for the entirety of the season, there has not been much of an improvement from Slaven Bilic to Allardyce, though I do see M’Baye Diagne as a player who could cause Palace problems at the weekend.
The Baggies have scored just 20 from 25.7 xG and let in 56 from 53.8 by far and away to the worst defensive record in the division, they need a modern day miracle to even be in the survival conversation in the final stretch of the season.
Having said all that, Palace will let them have the ball and try to break them down, they are likely to face less attacks than usual and in that face fewer challenges to their own goal. They were the better team in a poor match against Newcastle in their last outing, if this game takes a similar path I feel confident they will avoid defeat again.
Goals?
Not for me, you can find a value unders play on the Asian Goal Line under 2.25 goals at just below evens looks a good punt. However siding with WBA looks more appealing to me.
- Palace have scored in five of 10.
- Palace have conceded in seven of 10.
- Palace have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Palace have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10.
- WBA have scored in five of 10.
- WBA have conceded in seven of 10 but have recorded three clean sheets in their last four.
- WBA have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- WBA have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10, but none of six.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs West Brom – West Brom +0.25 Asian Handicap (1/1 Bet365)
Crystal Palace v West Brom – Both Teams to Score ‘No’ (11/13 SBK)
