ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Crystal Palace host Tottenham n the Premier League on Saturday.
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham | Saturday 11th September 2021, 12:30 | BT Sport
Table toppers Tottenham will be looking to continue their 100% start to the season as they take the trip across London to Selhurst Park.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have garnered three 1-0 victories from as many games and as we all know with Nuno, it will be the clean sheets that he is most pleased with thus far.
Whilst on paper Spurs look like they’ve started the season very solid defensively, they have been largely fortunate not to have conceded yet.
Only Arsenal and Burnley have faced more shots per game than Spurs’ 17.3 average, and the duo of Eric Dier and Davinosn Sanchez is likely to be split this weekend with the absence of the Colombian.
Crystal Palace on the other hand have not exceeded nor underwhelmed expectations, with new boss Patrick Viera needing time to alter the philosophy of the club.
He’ll need a win sooner or later, though, and what better day to do it against Spurs, with the narrative set for the ex-Gooner midfielder to get one over his ex-arch-rivals.
It is to the Bet365 Bet Builder I will head though for my main fancy for Saturday’s Premier League early kick-off, with the 19/20 on Under 4 Goals and both teams receiving a card appealing.
This bet has prevailed in 3/3 of Spurs games thus far, and I see another similar outcome with few goals but plenty of robust action.
Spurs top the discipline chart with 9 cards in 3, an average of 3.00 per game. Palace have disappointed on the card front, blanking in 2/3 but I think in front of a packed Selhurst Park some tackles could fly in.
Referee Jon Moss did indeed disappoint on this selection last season, booking both sides in just 12 of 25 (48%) games.
That being said, his visits to Selhurst in the past have featured plenty of cautions, with 12 of his 13 visits since the 2013/14 season seeing both sides cautioned.
His previous 28 Crystal Palace games have seen both sides carded in 23 of those, with an average of 4.25 cards flashed in his Palace appointments.
Finally, it’s worth stating that 29/38 Spurs games last term saw both sides booked, a whopping 76% of games.
I also think Under 2.5 Goals has to be a bet here given the way the game is likely to play out. Nuno has come into the club to get the team competing at the top of the table and he has stamped his blueprint fairly early on.
All three Spurs games have seen just the singular strike, whilst Viera’s Palace played out a 0-0 stalemate in their only home encounter this campaign.
At 5/6, there has to be a great value in backing the unders, and I’d expect the price to shorten come kick-off if indeed Son Hueng-Min is missing.
Also, 12/16 matches between the pair since Palace were promoted to the top tier in 2013/14 have gone Under 2.5 goals, so it is notoriously a low scoring affair.
And whilst it may render as a meaningless addition to the argument, all of Nuno’s meetings with Palace as Wolves boss went Under 2.5 goals.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham – Under 4 Goals and Both Teams Over 0 Cards (19/20 Bet365)
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham – Under 2.5 Goals (5/6 Mansion Bet)
