LIVERPOOL head to Crystal Palace on Saturday. Marcus Ally (@Marcus_Ally_4) oversees the Premier League encounter.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool | Saturday 19th December 2020, 12:30 | BT Sport
The early kick-off this Saturday sees two sides face off in the capital for the second time this week.
Crystal Palace host the champions Liverpool following their London derby against West Ham on Wednesday. Whereas the Reds will relish the top of the table clash with Tottenham midweek, hoping not to pick up any more injuries heading into this fixture.
The head-to-head record is a little humbling for the hosts who have lost their last seven meetings with Jurgen Klopp’s men and in that come in as large outsiders. Liverpool will want to make up for dropping two points at relegation threatened Fulham last weekend with back to back strong performances.
The process
As we have become accustomed to in recent years, Palace have continued to overperform their Expected Goals (xG) figures this term, sitting 12th compared to 15th in the xG goals table. Roy Hodgson’s men have scored 18 goals from 15.6 xG goals for, a somewhat inflated value from their 5-1 win over 10 man West Brom. They have also only conceded 17 from 18.7xG, Vicente Guaita between the sticks is a big part of that.
Liverpool’s data is still recovering a touch from their 7-2 defeat at Aston Villa however they still look the most reliable side in the division, heavy favourites to retain their title. They are top of the league for goals scored and xG with 27 from chances equating to 26.6, fair enough. Letting in 18 goals from 16.7 xG against, so a slight underperformance.
Goals?
Interesting angle, the Reds struggled in their early kick-off against Brighton, drawing 1-1 in an even game. For me it is a little risky, I would advise to be going lower with Liverpool’s trip to the Tottenham taking priority over this matchup, they may not be at their free scoring best.
- Palace have scored in six of 10.
- Palace have conceded in 10 of 10.
- Palace have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Palace have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- Liverpool have scored in nine of 10.
- Liverpool have conceded in six of 10.
- Liverpool have seen both teams score in five of 10.
- Liverpool have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
The betting angles
For a short play, using the Asian Goal Line to take Under 3.25 Goals or 3.0, 3.5 on bet365 looks a nice punt at 1.65, with the insurance of a half win if there are three goals scored.
But the main viewpoint is getting Liverpool onside with limiting Palace’s output. The Reds have performed admirably in the absence of Virgil Van Dijk and with the Eagles not known for free flowing attacking football they will have little joy come Saturday afternoon.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace v Liverpool – Liverpool to win and Crystal Palace to score Under 1.5 Goals (49/50 Betway)
Crystal Palace v Liverpool – Liverpool -1 Asian Handicap (9/10 GentingBet)
