CRYSTAL PALACE welcome Chelsea in Saturday's Premier League encounter. Rob Mason (@Sturdys29) delivers his betting analysis.
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea | Saturday 3rd April 2021, 17:30 | Sky Sports
It is a London derby on Saturday evening as Crystal Palace take on Chelsea at Selhurst Park.
Roy Hodgson looks to have guided his team to another season clear of relegation, with the Eagles currently on 38 points with 8 games to go.
Palace have continued to pick up results throughout the season and this was the case last time out against Everton as they equalised in the 86th minute.
It is now 1 loss in the last 6 for the Eagles, picking up a 0-0 draw at home to Manchester United in that run also. Hodgson’s biggest job for the rest of the season (with safety guaranteed) may be to keep his squad focused on their remaining games rather than their summer holiday plans.
It was a workman like performance for Chelsea in Seville against Porto midweek, with the Blues picking up a 2-0 victory. Thomas Tuchel’s men only had 6 shots all evening but it would be hard to argue they did not deserve the victory.
The German coach really has brought some solidarity to the Chelsea back line. If you take out the 5-2 defeat against West Brom, the Blues have only conceded 1 goal in their last 10 Premier League games.
With the second leg in the Champions League being played as early as Tuesday it is likely that Tuchel will rotate his team. It is a possibility that Marcos Alonso, Kurt Zouma, Hakim Ziyech and Christian Pulisic all get a start here.
The betting angles
In the outright market Crystal Palace are 6/1 to pick up the 3 points with the draw at 3/1 and Chelsea to get the win are 1/2. At ½, I am not overly interested about backing Chelsea.
Palace have picked up results at home against other top-eight teams including Manchester United, Spurs and Leicester. We also must take into consideration a likely different line up and that is enough to put me off Chelsea in the outright markets.
Instead, I do like the look of the unders in the goal markets. Since Tuchel has taken charge, 14 out of the last 16 games for Chelsea have seen Under 2.5 and at home this season 67% of Palace games have also seen Under 2.5. Priced at 4/5 with Bet 365 it is an angle I want to get onside.
In the player prop market, I am keen to on Marco Alonso shots. Alonso ranks third-highest for average number of shots in the Chelsea team (an average of 1.8 shots per-game).
The Spaniard in his last 7 games he has started has hit 2 shots on all 7 occasions and at 10/11 with Paddy Power or Betfair that looks like a price worth getting involved with.
As well as the number of shots, I also want to back the shot on target (SOT). Alonso had 3 SOT against West Brom last time out when Chelsea went down 5-2. The 3 SOT also contributes towards Alonso picking up at least 1 SOT in 4 of his last 7 and priced up with the same bookmaker at 9/5 it looks another value pick.
Prices in these markets are always likely to change, but I would consider taking the 2 shots price anything above 4/5 and the SOT down to 5/4.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea – Under 2.5 Goals (4/5 Bet365)
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea – Marcos Alonso 2+ shots (10/11 Betfair)
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea – Marcos Alonso 1+ shot on target (9/5 Betfair)
