CRYSTAL PALACE welcome Chelsea to Selhust Park on Tuesday night. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) delivers his betting analysis.
Crystal Palace v Chelsea | Tuesday 7th June 2020, 18:00 | Sky Sports
Frank Lampard takes his Chelsea side to Crystal Palace as the Blues look to strengthen their grip on a Champions League spot. And a win this evening would see them climb into third above Leicester.
The Blues have only lost once in their last seven games with that in their last away game – a disappointing 3-2 defeat against relegation-threatened West Ham.
This be will a stern test for Lampard’s young side against a Palace side who will sit deep and soak up all the pressure, trying to hit them on the break. But, Roy Hodgson’s side are winless in three and they’ve failed to score in those games too.
The Eagles do struggle in front of goal and they are the only side yet to score more than twice in a Premier League games this season, while no side has failed to score in as many home games as Palace (6).
Sustained Chelsea pressure
This Chelsea side boasts plenty of attacking options and player who aren’t afraid to pull the trigger. That could see them rack up the shots against a side that sit deep in a bid to keep this goalless for as long as possible.
Only Man City average more shots per game than Chelsea (16.8) this season and there’s scope to back them in the team shots market here.
Sky Bet go 4/5 on Chelsea having 15+ shots. They’ve done that in 12 of 13 league games since their 1-1 draw with Brighton on New Year’s Day. The same firm are offering 5/4 on 16+, which has landed in 11 of 13.
Saturday’s 3-0 win over Watford saw 21 shots with their shot count generally in the 17-23 bracket. The highest of those numbers came against struggling Bournemouth (23).
The two occasions it failed to land came against Leicester (seven shots) and Man City (15 shots), teams of a higher calibre to Crystal Palace, so that 5/4 is very attractive. The same two markets with Betfair are 15+ at 4/7 and 16+ at 10/11 for comparison.
Player props appeal
There are two players worth siding with, although one is a Crystal Palace player. Former Blue Gary Cahill is 6/5 for 1+ shot with Pokerstars and that looks big considering Chelsea look fallible from set-pieces.
Watford’s Craig Dawson had three shots on Saturday against Chelsea, West Ham scored one from a corner and another was disallowed, while going back further, Villa’s Kortney Hause had three shots with two on target in their 2-1 defeat to the Blues.
What’s more, Cahill has had more shots on target than any other Palace player (three) in the four games since the restart. The former England defender had a shot on target at Leicester, two on target against Burnley and two shots at Bournemouth.
The 34-year-old is odds-on in places just to have a shot, so the 6/5 looks fairly generous with Pokerstars, while he’s 4/1 with the same firm to test Kepa.
The other man to consider here is in fine form having scored six goals in his last seven games. That man is Willian, who has been excellent in the last few weeks, and it’s probably his best spell in a Chelsea shirt.
The Brazilian is likely to be on free-kick duty and with how deep Palace will sit, it should give him space to cut inside and let rip.
He’s had 28 shots on target this season, with two in each of his last two starts – West Ham and Watford. Plus, he registered a couple on goal in consecutive games against the Merseyside clubs.
Back in the reverse fixture, when Chelsea ran out 2-0 winners, Willian had two shots on target from four efforts. And on his last visit to Selhurst Park, he had two on target, so I’ll be taking the 21/10 on a repeat.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace v Chelsea – Chelsea 16+ shots (5/4 Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace v Chelsea – Willian 2+ shots on target (21/10 Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace v Chelsea – Gary Cahill 1+ shot (6/5 Pokerstars)
