SUNDAY night sees PSG face Bayern Munich in the Champions League final and we asked Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) to pick out the best bookings-based plays ahead of their showpiece showdown.
PSG vs Bayern Munich | Sunday 23rd August 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
It all comes down to this. PSG are appearing in their first-ever Champions League final and will be hoping their star players, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, can cause an upset and leave Lisbon as European champions.
To do so they will have to overcome a Bayern side who now have the joint-most appearances in European Cup finals, and who are averaging 4.3 goals a game.
Key stats
PSG:
- Commit on average 12 fouls per game in this seasons UCL campaign.
- Receive on average 17 fouls per game in this seasons UCL campaign.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 3/4 knockout games in this season's UCL.
- In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on occasions.
Bayern Munich:
- Commit on average 11 fouls per game in this seasons UCL campaign.
- Receive on average 9.1 fouls per game in this seasons UCL Campaign.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 2/4 knockout games in this season’s UCL.
- In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on occasions.
Key facts:
- Bayern Munich and PSG have met EIGHT times previously, all in the UCL group stages. PSG won FIVE of those matches, with Bayern winning the other THREE.
- This is PSG’s first-ever UCL final – the last SIX teams competing in their first final have all lost. The last first-time winner was Borussia Dortmund back in 1997 against Juventus.
- Only Real Madrid have played in more European finals than Bayern Munich.
- PSG manager, Thomas Tuchel, has lost more matches in his managerial career against Bayern Munich than any other team (9).
- The last goalkeeper to keep a clean sheet against PSG in the UCL was Joe Hart way back in 2016.
- PSG games have seen THREE or more goals in 28 of the last 33 matches.
- Bayern Munich have scored at least THREE goals in 8/9 UCL matches.
- PSG have received a colossal 25 yellows in this competition, whereas Bayern Munich have seen just 9.
Analysis
It’s a game that sees some of the world's most exciting players go head-to-head in what looks to be a thrilling contest. If the Europa League final was anything to go by then this should be an absolute belter.
My first bet is going to be for Thomas Tuchel’s side to find the back of the net a couple of times! Whilst I completely agree with the general consensus that Bayern are going to be too strong and will find a way to win and lift old big ears, I can't help but feel that they’ve been somewhat lucky not to have conceded a few more throughout the competition.
In the last round, the Bavarians struggled to contain Lyon in the early stages and the side from France should arguably have been a couple of goals up early on.
The last goalkeeper to keep a clean sheet in the UCL against PSG was Joe Hart all the way back in 2016. With Neymar and Mbappe looking a real force and given that Bayern have shown that their defence can be suspect, I really fancy Les Parisiens to slot a couple.
My second bet is for PSG to beat the -0.5 handicap on the Most Cards market. PSG have been one of the most carded teams in the competition this season, averaging 2.5 cards per-game, and they come up against a side who’ve averaged less than one per game!
With Daniele Orsato in charge, a man who shows more cards than a budget magician, you can expect to see more PSG players written into his book than Bayern.
For a little extra reasoning, both teams have seen 2+ cards in just 2/5 of the previous finals, with Bayern seeing so few, the stats point to the French side seeing more than their counterparts.
Thirdly, playing a little safer, I'm going for the Bet Buillder on Bet365. Just five of PSG’s last 33 games have seen fewer than three goals. These two have goals throughout their respective sides and at times their defending has been nothing short of questionable. I’ve already discussed my reasoning behind why I think PSG will see cards, so this one is a decent bet at a good price considering the statistics behind it.
Finally, I’m going to be dipping into the player cards market. This will be Thiago Silva’s final game for PSG and he will be desperate to leave on the highest of highs. However, he can sometimes get quite emotional in the most routine of games.
The magnitude of this fixture cannot be understated and Thiago Silva’s going to have to keep his defence in check if they’re to stop Robert Lewandowski and co from scoring. I think 5/1 is somewhat overpriced for him to pick up a card and so this will be a play – team line-ups permitting, of course.
Best Bets
PSG vs Bayern Munich – PSG to score Over 1 Goal (1/1 Bet365)
PSG vs Bayern Munich – PSG -0.5 Card Handicap (1/1 Bet365)
PSG vs Bayern Munich – Over 2 Goals, Both Teams to Score and PSG Over 1 Card (20/21 Bet365)
PSG vs Bayern Munich – Thiago Silva to be carded (5/1 SkyBet)
