Burnley vs Arsenal: Back a conservative Arsenal easing to victory at Turf Moor

Football fan Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) believes there's value backing Arsenal with a conservative performance.

Burnley vs Arsenal | Sunday 26th November 2017, 14:00 | Sky Sports

I feel like I have read more about Burnley in the last two weeks than the previous twenty years of my life!

They have received so many column inches due to the excellent job their manager Sean Dyche is doing, their record of 22 points from 12 games and the belief within the analyst community that they are a data anomaly.

Basically, their performance data suggests that their current seventh place is very flattering. I have also read articles stating that such data models cannot pick up certain nuances and that actually Burnley’s league position is perfectly fair.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of those articles – my own view is that Dyche is doing an excellent job but they have at least six or seven more points than their performances deserve – I simply don’t see the Lancashire side getting anything from this game.

In this fixture last season, Arsenal were 1/3 best price yet you can get 3/5 on the away side this weekend, a reflection of the additional respect Burnley have gained from bookmakers and punters and the lack of love for Arsene Wenger’s side at the moment.

I believe that 3/5 is more than reasonable as despite the fact that they have the same points total there is a clear gulf in class between these two.

To put it in perspective, to date this season, Arsenal has had 40 more shots on target and faced 15 fewer. Therefore, whilst the North Londoners will always have their detractors and many will make a case for a home win, I am not one of them.

I do, however, respect Burnley’s defensive record. Given that they have already been to Stamford Bridge, Goodison, Anfield, Wembley and The Etihad, to have just conceded nine goals so far this season is an incredible achievement and I cannot see Arsenal running away with it.

Therefore, I recommend taking the 11/8 with BetVictor on an away win and under 3.5 goals being scored. I shall be on the 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines myself.