WE'RE delighted to welcome WLB debutant and cards specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) to the ranks this weekend as he picks out his favourite bookings bets from matchday 29 of the Bundesliga campaign.
Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen | Friday 29th May 2020, 19:30 | BT Sport
Europa League hopefuls Freiburg welcome Champions League-chasing Bayer Leverkusen to the Schwarzwald-Stadion on Friday night.
Freiburg are winless since football resumed after the lockdown, drawing away to RB Leipzig, losing at home to relegation fodder Werder Bremen followed by another draw at Eintracht Frankfurt.
They’ve faced 66 shots and have been fouled 43 times in those three games alone.
Apart from Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, Freiburg commit the fewest fouls when playing at home and bearing in mind the previously mentioned duo are sitting in the top two and see the majority of possession in all of their games, it would suggest that Freiburg are not an aggressive side.
Whilst Freiburg make the fewest attempted tackles in the entire division when playing at home they also win the second-most fouls at home per-game on average.
Bayer Leverkusen had looked like they were picking up from right where they left off pre-lockdown, mainly due to the attacking prowess of 20 year-old Kai Havertz. However their last outing, at home to Wolfsburg, saw them defeated 4-1 – their first home loss since December 2019.
The humbling defeat to Wolfsburg meant that Borussia Monchengladbach overtook Die Werkself to go into third-place on goal difference and it should mean that Leverkusen will look to take control of this game straight from the first whistle.
Freiburg:
- Lucas Höler is the second most fouled player in the league.
- Are second when it comes to average fouls per game at home – receive 13 per game.
- When playing at home the opposition have received 30+ Booking Points 9/13 times.
- Non-aggressive but draw a lot of fouls.
Bayer Leverkusen:
- Commit on average 12.2 fouls per game.
- Are third when it comes to unsuccessful touches and being dispossessed when playing away.
Analysis
Leverkusen will look to make amends for their loss to Wolfsburg and try to get back into third. They will take the initiative from the first minute and control possession whilst Freiburg look to hit them on the counter. Given how often they away side give up possession through poor touches or being tackled, I can see them making some questionable challenges to stop the counters.
Bayer Leverkusen to collect 30+ Booking Points stands-out at 2/1 (SkyBet).
Borussia Monchengladbach v Union Berlin | Sunday 31st May 2020, 14:30 | BT Sport
In just their second home game since the restart of the Bundesliga, Borussia Monchengladbach welcome Union Berlin to Borussia-Park.
It’s a game that both will be desperate to win for completely different reasons. Gladbach currently sit in fourth with a spot in next season’s Champions League in sight. Meanwhile, Union will want to make their chances of a second season in the top-flight an even more possible reality.
The hosts have had a mixed time post lockdown, winning against Eintracht Frankfurt but then losing and drawing to Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen respectively.
Union have fared even worse however, with two losses against Bayern Munich and city rivals Hertha Berlin accompanied by a draw at home to relegation candidates Mainz.
Borussia Monchengladbach:
- Win the fourth most fouls on average when playing at home – receiving 12.8 per game.
- Marcus Thuram is the third most fouled player in the division.
- When at home this season, the opposition has seen 20+ BookingPpoints in 12/14 games and 30+ in 7/14.
Union Berlin:
- Commit the most fouls in the league when playing away – conceding 15.6 per game on average.
- In Union Berlin’s away games this season they have seen 20+ booking points in 11/14 games and 30+ in 10/14.
- Are awarded an average of 2.43 cards when playing away.
- See twice as many cards in the second half as they do in the first – 0.8 in the first half compared with 1.6 in the second on average.
Analysis
Much like Leverkusen, Gladbach disappointed last time out and will want to strengthen their grip on the top-four even further. They will take the initiative and play the majority of the game inside Union Berlins half.
Union Berlin are an extremely aggressive side and given they commit the most fouls in the league when playing away, they will most like use this to try and break up much of the Gladbach play.
Therefore, I will be looking to play two wagers from Bet365’s Bet Builder – Union Berlin to receive Over 2 Cards and Union Berlin also to collect Over 1 Second Half Card, whilst also venturing into the free-kick area of the Bet Builder to support Gladbach earning Over 6.5 Free-Kicks in the first half and Over 7.5 Free-Kicks in the second half – both selections will be available closer to kick-off.
Koln v RB Leipzig | Monday 1st June 2020, 19:30 | BT Sport
Koln have had a somewhat average return to action picking up two draws and a win. In those three games they have seen five yellows and a red, although ironically the game against Dusseldorf that saw them pick up none also saw them commit the most fouls out of all three.
The Billy Goats extremely aggressive style of play sees them sit second in the discipline table with a total of 64 cards from 28 games.
If it wasn’t for consistent draws then Leipzig may have made it a three-horse race for the title. No team has had more draws in the league this season and it’s left them nine points adrift of Bayern at the top of the table. They have fared better in their away games this season but Koln will make it no easy task.
FC Koln:
- Commit the second most fouls at home – an average of 14.1 per game.
- Have an extremely aggressive style of play.
- Despite being aggressive, Jhon Cordoba is also the fourth most fouled player in the league. He is also in the top 15 for fouls committed.
- Koln have seen two or more cards at home this season in 9/14 games but in 4/5 against the top 6.
- When playing opposition in the top half, the away side has seen two cards or more 6/8 times.
- Sebastiaan Bornauw is suspended.
RB Leipzig:
- Konrad Laimer has committed the second most fouls in the league.
- Leipzig away have received two cards or more in 9/14 games but also in 4/7 games against teams in the bottom half.
Analysis
As is usual with Leipzig, the visitors will dominate the possession and look to play intricately through Koln’s defence. With Halstenberg suspended, expect to see Manchester City loanee Angelino fill the slot at left-back and look to make advanced runs with plenty of crosses.
Markus Gisdol has said his Koln side need to play consistently for 90 minutes and he will hope the hosts can pressure Leipzig for long periods and take their chances. Koln have scored in all but two home games this season so will have their good spells and cause Leipzig some problems.
Because of this, combined with Koln’s disciplinary record and fouls per game average at home, there should be plenty of challenges going in. I like the look of 20+ Booking Points Each Team (5/4 SkyBet), as well as Jhon Cordoba to be carded (5/2 Bet365).
Best Bets
Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen – Bayer Leverkusen 30+ Booking Points (2/1 SkyBet)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Union Berlin – Union Berlin Over 2 Cards and Union Berlin Over 1 Second Half Card (*Bet365)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Union Berlin – Borussia Monchengladbach Over 6.5 free kicks in the first half and Borussia Monchengladbach Over 7.5 free kicks in the second half (*Bet365)
Koln v RB Leipzig – 20+ Booking Points Each Team (5/4 SkyBet)
Koln v RB Leipzig – Jhon Cordoba to be carded (5/2 Bet365)
*Selection available closer to kick-off
