CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite bookings bets from MD30 of the Bundesliga.
Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach | Friday 5th June 2020, 19:30 | BT Sport
The home side currently sit eighth and just four points off of a Europa League qualifying position, however their position is reflective of an exceptionally strong start to a season. Since then they have somewhat struggled and this started before the lockdown and has carried over into the restart.
Freiburg haven’t won a single game since football resumed and have lost both home games by a single goal to relegation candidates Werder Bremen and Champions League hopefuls Bayer Leverkusen respectively.
Borussia Monchengladbach, on the other hand, have had an excellent return to football with their only loss coming at the hands of Bayer Leverkusen. The performances of Marcus Thuram and Alassane Plea have been exceptional and they are responsible for six of the eight goals the Foals have scored since the restart.
Key Stats
Freiburg:
- Commit 9.3 fouls per game on average when playing at home.
- Receive 12.9 fouls per game on average (the second most when playing at home).
- When playing at home against the top half, Freiburg have seen 2+ cards on 2/5 occasions. The opposition have seen 2+ on 4/5 occasions.
- When playing at home against teams in the top 5 of the disciplinary table, the opposition has seen 2+ cards in 3/3 games.
- XG for at home is 18.26 but they have only scored 16.
- XG against at home is 19.97 and they have conceded 16.
- Conceded in 4/5 games against the top 6 at home.
- Have not scored in their last 2 home games.
- Only Dortmund see fewer cards per game at home – receive an average of 1.14 per game.
- Have a 2 day rest advantage over Gladbach.
Borussia Monchengladbach:
- Commit 12.7 fouls per game on average when playing away.
- Receive 13.6 fouls per game on average (the second most when playing away).
- When playing away to teams in the top half they have seen 2+ cards on 5/6 occasions.
- XG for when playing away is 24.77 and they have scored 22.
- XG against away from home is 17.99 and they have only conceded 15.
- Have scored in 4/6 games away to teams in the top half.
- Are undefeated in their last 5 away games.
Analysis
Although Freiburg have two extra days rest over Gladbach, it’s difficult to make a case for a Freiburg victory. They have conceded goals in 4/5 games against teams from the top six when playing at home and given the current form of the away sides attackers, they are more than likely going to allow the visitors to have many chances.
Gladbach will likely see the majority of possession but they do have a habit of making questionable challenges and given that Freiburg receive the second most fouls per game in the league when playing at home, I expect the away side to see a couple of cards.
My selection comes from Bet365's Bet Builder and is Borussia Monchengladbach Double Chance, Borussia Monchengladbach to score Over 0 Goals, Borussia Monchengladbach to collect Over 1 Card at 10/11.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim | Saturday 6th June 2020, 14:30 | BT Sport
The home side currently sit in the relegation playoff place and are fighting for their lives and need to keep winning to try and go above Mainz in the table. Their only win since the restart has come against out of form Schalke and last time out they were humbled by table topping Bayern Munich
5-0.
Whilst their previous result can happen to anyone given the strength of Bayern, it’ll be important that they can bounce back and put in a good performance against this weekend’s visitors.
Hoffenheim have had a reasonably solid return to Bundesliga action with their only loss coming in their first game back at home to a resurgent Hertha Berlin side. Since then they have drawn one and won two.
Key Stats
Fortuna Dusseldorf:
- Commit 11.2 fouls per game on average at home.
- Receive 12.9 fouls per game on average (the third most when playing at home).
- When play at home against teams from the top half they have seen 2+ cards on 5/7 occasions, their opposition have seen 2+ on 5/7 occasions.
- XG for at home is 16.2 and they have scored 15.
- XG against at home is 25.99 and they have conceded 24.
- There have been over 2.5 goals in Fortuna’s last 3 games.
- Defender Ayhan has 10 cards in 26 appearances and returns from suspension.
- Have conceded in 7/7 home games against teams from the top half.
- Receive an average of 2 cards at home per game.
- Have an extremely aggressive style of play.
Hoffenheim:
- Commit 12.6 fouls per game on average when playing away from home.
- Receive 13.1 fouls per game on average (fourth highest when playing away).
- When playing away against the bottom half they have seen 2+ cards on 5/7 occasions and the opposition have seen 2+ 7/7 times.
- When playing away to teams in the top five of the disciplinary league table, Hoffenheim’s opposition have seen 2+ cards 4/4 times.
- XG for away from home is 18.66 and they have scored 18.
- XG against away from home is 22.31 and they have only conceded 13.
- Have scored in 6/7 away to teams in the bottom half.
Analysis
Both teams are looking to advance their position within the table and I expect this to be an open game with quite a few challenges going in from both sides.
Defender Ayhan returns from suspension for the home side and he has seen 10 cards in 26 appearances this season. Fortuna often commit fouls in dangerous areas so expect him to commit a few of those and possibly see his return marked with yet another card.
Hoffenheim have scored in 6/7 games away to teams in the bottom half and Fortuna have conceded to teams in the top half 7/7 times when playing at home so it would appear that it’s almost inevitable that the visitors will get on the scoresheet.
I'll be taking two selections: Hoffenheim to score 1+ goal, Hoffenheim to win 5+ Corners and Fortuna Dusseldorf to collect 2+ Cards at 11/4 (Betfair) plus the more adventurous Hoffenheim to score 2+ Goals, Hoffenheim to win 5+ Corners and Fortuna Dusseldorf to collect 2+ Cards at 6/1 and also at Betfair.
Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg | Sunday 7th June 2020, 12:30 | BT Sport
Werder maintain their position as being the worst performing team at home this season after a being dealt a 3-0 thumping at the hands of Eintracht Frankfurt midweek. During that game it looked as though they should’ve gotten on the scoresheet as their counter-attack caused the away side a lot of problems, but their issue, as it has been throughout the season, is being able to turn those chances into goals.
Bremen's Expected Goals (XG) at home is 15.58 which is incredibly low in itself but they have only managed to score nine. On the other side their XG against when playing at home is 19.59 yet they have conceded 33!
Wolfsburg are looking to further strengthen their grip on the Europa League qualifying place as they currently only maintain it on goal difference ahead of Hoffenheim. Wolfsburg have endured a mixed restart having won two and lost two, but the two they have won have come away from home which isn’t surprising considering seven of their eleven victories have come away from home this season.
Key Stats
Werder Bremen:
- Commit 12.4 fouls per game on average when playing at home.
- Receive 12.7 fouls per game on average (fourth most when playing at home).
- When playing at home against teams from the top half they have seen 2+ cards on 5/7 occasions whilst the opposition has seen 2+ on 4/7 occasions.
- XG at home is 15.58 but they have only scored 9.
- XG against at home is 19.59 but they have shipped 33.
- When playing teams from the top half at home they have conceded 6/7 times.
- Have scored 1 goal in their last 8 home games.
- Struggle with defending set-pieces.
Wolfsburg:
- Commit 15.4 fouls per game on average (the most in the Bundesliga when playing away.)
- Receive 10.1 fouls per game on average when playing away.
- When playing away against teams from the bottom half they have seen 2+ cards on 7/8 occasions whilst the opposition has seen 2+ in 4/8 games.
- XG for when playing away is 24.84 and they have scored 24.
- XG against when playing away is 18.49 and they have conceded 19.
- Have scored in 8/8 games when playing away to teams in the bottom half.
Analysis
Werder Bremen have to start stringing some results together if they are to stand a chance of avoiding the dreaded drop out of the Bundesliga, but it’s unlikely to happen against this Wolfsburg side.
Bremen have conceded in 6/8 games when playing the top half at home whilst The Wolves have scored in all 8 of their away games against teams in the bottom half.
Wolfsburg however commit the most fouls on average per game when playing away from home and have seen 2+ cards at sides from the bottom half on 7/8 occasions. With Bremen more than likely looking to counter-attack I’d expect to see Wolfsburg’s foul count to be accompanied by a couple of bookings.
My play here is to back Wolfsburg to win, Wolfsburg to collect Over 1 Cards and Werder Bremen to win Over 13.5 Free-Kicks via Bet365's Bet Builder.
Best Bets
Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach – Borussia Monchengladbach Double Chance, Borussia Monchengladbach to score Over 0 Goals, Borussia Monchengladbach to collect Over 1 Card (10/11 Bet365)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim – Hoffenheim to score 1+ goal, Hoffenheim to win 5+ Corners and Fortuna Dusseldorf to collect 2+ Cards (11/4 Betfair)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim – Hoffenheim to score 2+ Goals, Hoffenheim to win 5+ Corners and Fortuna Dusseldorf to collect 2+ Cards (6/1 Betfair)
Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg – Wolfsburg to win, Wolfsburg to collect Over 1 Cards, Werder Bremen to win Over 13.5 Free-Kicks (TBC Bet365)
