AFTER netting more profit at the weekend Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) is back with another bookings bet.
Duisburg v Paderborn | Monday 19:15 | BT Sport Europe
Who fancies a relegation battle in Germany's Bundesliga 2 on a Monday night? C'mon you know you want to! Yes, Duisburg host Paderborn in a relatively local derby with both teams struggling in the German second tier.
Bundesliga official Bastian Dankert is charged with dropping down a league to keep these two in check and the stats say he will have a hard task.
Dankert averages six cards per game in Germany's top flight and that includes two Bayern Munich matches (Bayern games notoriously have little card action). In his four games he has dished out 19 yellows and two reds.
Duisburg average a hefty 3.55 cards per game and Paderborn 2.33. Added up that gives a total of 5.88 cards. On top of this, in the past five meetings between these two teams the total cards have been eight, eight, six, five and seven.
With four of those five meetings going over the projected line on Monday I'm happy to take the 5/6 offered by Bet365 on over 5.5 cards. (Hills are going 8/11 so this is relative value).
Best Bets
Duisburg v Paderborn – Over 5.5 Cards (5/6 Bet365)
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