ANOTHER day of booking bets for Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) on Sunday with two here catching his eye.
Verona v Palermo | Sunday 14:00
16th placed Palermo travel to rock bottom Verona in what must surely be considered a relegation dogfight. The hosts have only accumulated eight points and are surely drinking in the last chance saloon.
The Sicilian visitors average three cards per game and will targeting three points against their beleaguered hosts. For their part, Verona typically collect 2.94 cards per game. On average these two teams would receive 5.94 cards. Luca Banti is the man in charge of this tussle. He averages 6.75 cards per game.
Using my geeky formula, I had this down as the highest scoring card match in Serie A on Sunday. Therefore, I am surprised to see Bet365 dangling a carrot of over 4.5 cards. They have since moved this up but we can play the Asian line of over 5 cards. Given the stats that has to be the call at 1.8.
Sporting Lisbon v Braga | Sunday 16:00 | BT Sport ESPN
On a trappy looking day for cards punters I am suggesting a rare dip into the Portuguese market. With this market getting priced up more and more there will be opportunities. I believe one such opportunity exists when 4th placed Braga visit table topping Sporting Lisbon in an explosive looking contest.
Sporting coach Jorge Jesus is a Marmite figure who gets passions rising with his behaviour. Lisbon will be no place for the faint hearted on Sunday afternoon.
Manuel Sousa is the man in charge here and he seemingly never issues less than five cards with an average of 6.5 over his last ten domestic games.
The last two encounters in Braga had five cards apiece but the two meetings in Lisbon had eight and seven cards in them. With plenty at stake I'm backing over 6 cards on the Asian line with Bet365 at 1.85.
FYI – Backing an Asian Line means that your stake will be returned if the exact number of cards quoted in the bet occurs (eg) if exactly 5 cards are shown in Verona v Palermo your stake will be returned rather than you losing the bet.
Best Bets
Verona v Palermo – Over 5 Cards Asian Line (4/5 Bet365)
Sporting Lisbon v Braga – Over 6 Cards Asian Line (17/20 Bet365)
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