CARD KING Gavin Murphy (GamePlanGavin) has analysed the bookings markets ahead of Sunday's 2018 World Cup contest between Germany and Mexico from Moscow.
Germany v Mexico | Sunday 17th June 2018, 16:00 | BBC
The mighty Germany make their tournament bow on Sunday afternoon as they take on Mexico in Group F. Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium is the venue for the meeting of these World Cup regulars.
Four-time winners Germany are going into the tournament with the aim of becoming only the third nation after Italy and Brazil to defend their World Cup crown. No country has done it since the back-to-back titles of Brazil in 1958-1962.
Mexico have reached the Last 16 in each of the last six World Cups, but their best record of a quarter-final dates back to 1970 and 1986. In 1986, they lost to West Germany in the last eight.
Surprised by kind card lines
I have been pleasantly surprised to see Bet365’s opening line of 3.5 cards. I’ll be shocked if it lasts.
Germany are notoriously low card collectors. In qualification games they rarely get tested and this time around they averaged just 5 Bookings Points per-game. Simply put, the Germans don’t get carded!
Mexico were also very disciplined in qualification averaging just 14.7 Bookings Points per-appearance.
These countries last met in the 2017 Confederations Cup. Germany won 4-1 and 20 Bookings Points were shown that day (Raul Jiménez for Mexico and Germany’s Emre Can the offenders).
Iranian whistleblower Alireza Faghani is the man in the middle for this clash. He gave less than 3.5 cards in 4/6 qualification games.
Few cards fancied
I think most observers would expect the reigning champions to carve out a routine victory in this match and that probably lends itself to a low card count.
At the time of writing, the opening matches of this World Cup have seen Bookings Points of 20-20-40 and 20.
I expect that trend to continue in this game and am very happy to support Under 3.5 Cards at 9/10 on Bet365's Asian line. Back this rather than the 5/6 on the main line as it gives slightly better value.
Best Bets
Germany v Mexico – Under 3.5 Cards (9/10 Bet365)
