BAYERN MUNICH host Borussia Dortmund in Saturday night's standout showdown from the Bundesliga. Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB) is on-hand to preview his favourite fancies.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund | Saturday 6th March 2021, 17:30 | BT Sport
If you’ve been put off a Saturday Night Takeaway scarred by the image of a boy band icon blowing an eggplant, or too home-schooled out for a Mastermind session or a stream of Pointless game shows then great news, 5:30pm this Saturday sees the latest instalment of Der Klassiker, live on BT Sport.
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund have arguably been the two powerhouses of German football in recent years and although BVB have had, by their own standards, a poor domestic campaign sitting 13 points adrift of their league leading rivals this remains the biggest Bundesliga clash.
Some observers have cited a Bavarian wobble after a draw (3-3 with Bielefeld) and a 2-1 loss in Frankfurt following after a successful trip to Qatar for the FIFA Club World Cup – but that’s as jelly like as Hansi Flick’s juggernaut of a team get, demonstrated by scoring nine goals, conceding two in a 4-1 UCL thrashing of Lazio and a 5-1 demolition of FC Koln in the following two games.
Dortmund’s form has taken an upturn since the announcement that Marco Rose would become the new head coach at the end of the season, with expected victories over third bottom Bielefeld and whipping boys Schalke sandwiched by impressive away wins in Sevilla and a Rose led Borussia Monchengladbach.
However, can I see that run of four victories being extended in the Allianz Arena – in short…NO!
As we know, Bayern are a formidable opponent, having now scored in 54 successive games, smashing a club record 67 goals in the opening 23 league games and undefeated in 35 of their last 38 in the Bundesliga.
They become even more so when faced with Saturday’s opponent winning at half time and full time in each of the last four meetings in this stadium, and will be looking for a seventh successive head-to-head home league win having scored an incredible 26 goals whilst conceding just three in that time – winning the last three here 4-0, 5-0 and 6-0.
For their part interim head coach Edin Terzic’s side have scored in an impressive 31 consecutive games demonstrating a do or die mentality seeing just one stalemate in their last 24 league road trips (W15, D1, L8) – it’s hard seeing them change their approach going in to this clash.
Odds for a home win are understandably prohibitive with SBK’s 13/19 the best price on offer however with 11 of the last 13 head to heads in all competitions seeing over 2.5 match goals and with that line being crossed in all of Dortmund’s last seven away league games we should also expect goals.
With no home league clean sheet for Manuel Neuer since October’s 5-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt, a run of eight games, it was very tempting to add both teams to score to a Bayern win at odds of 6/4 with Bet 365 – but with the recent history a worry, I am happy to take smaller odds of even money (1/1) and simply add over 2.5 match goals to that home win with the same firm via Bet Builder.
One aspect of this clash which adds extra spice is the chance to see the goalscoring phenomenon that is Robert Lewandowski in a shoot-out with one of the young pretenders to his throne, Erling Haaland.
The Polish poacher sets the bar – extremely high – adding two more goals to his tally in that aforementioned 5-1 mauling of Koln, having now scored an incredible 28 goals in 22 Bundesliga appearances with his form against former employers Dortmund tantamount to bullying.
The 32-year-old number 9 has bagged 17 League goals against Dortmund – more than any other Bayern player, even surpassing Gerd Müller (14) whose all-time record of 40 goals in a single Bundesliga season is under threat with Lewandowski three goals ahead at the equivalent stage of the German legends record breaking season.
The reigning Best FIFA Men's Player has also scored at least twice in the last five home league editions of Der Klassiker – it's just 21/10 (Betfair/Paddy Power) he does so again.
Haaland is a big fan “That man is crazy. Just crazy,” he recently told Norwegian TV “When I score, I'm one goal closer to catching him up – and then he just scores another hat-trick like it's an everyday thing.”
Despite missing a month with injury, the 20-year-old Norwegian has managed 17 league goals this season, including a strike in the reverse fixture and in the German Super Cup final between the two sides, generally available odds of 1/1 to find the net again are quite tempting.
Sky Bet have a “Price Boost” of 5/2 for both Lewandowski and Haaland to score – a price which is also available with Bet 365 via Bet Builder however, I am drawn to a bet along a similar theme at slightly bigger odds.
One of Paddy Power and Betfair’s Power Prices is for Robert Lewandowski & Erling Haaland to have 2 or more shots on target each at odds of 11/4 – we have already illustrated at length Lewy’s incredible scoring record and with Haaland having had at least two shots on target in each of his last five appearances and in six of the last seven I think this looks a very appealing play at nice odds.
Best Bets
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund – Bayern Munich to win and Over 2 Goals (1/1 Bet365)
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund – Robert Lewandowski and Erling Haaland to have 2 or more shots on-target each (11/4 Betfair)
