CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Sunday night's showdown between Aston Villa and West Brom.
Aston Villa vs West Brom| Sunday 25th April 2021, 19:00 | BT Sport
Two rivals who are desperate to return to winning ways go head-to-head down at Villa Park.
Aston Villa have had a dismal second-half of their season. The word Europe had been uttered around Villa up until the New Year, but since then they’ve not been able to sustain a decent run.
It might be a case of too little too late for Sam Allardyce’s men, but they’d hate to drop points and ended up being relegated by a fine margin. The Baggies have been much improved of late and will be keen to earn the bragging rights and claim all three points against the odds.
Key stats
Aston Villa:
● Aston Villa have seen at least a card in 14/15 home games and 2 or more in 9/15.
● Villa have lost nine of their 17 EPL games since the new year.
● Committed 11+ fouls in 23/31 games played this season.
● Their last three EPL games have seen over 2.5 goals.
Team news:
● Jack Grealish is expected to miss out once again, with Villa's season really fizzling out in his absence. Dean Smith will hope to have him back to face Everton next weekend.
● Matty Cash is suspended after two unnecessary yellow cards in the space of three minutes against Man City, with Ahmed Elmohamady the only natural replacement.
● Despite injury to Morgan Sanson, Ross Barkley remains out of favour but will likely compete with Jacob Ramsey for a starting berth, with Marvelous Nakamba likely to drop out.
● Wesley is building his fitness slowly in PL2 action but is unlikely to be available for selection until next month.
West Brom:
● Have been awarded 11+ fouls in 25/32 matches this season and in 11 of their last 12 games.
● West Brom's opponents when playing away have seen at least a card in 13/16 and 2 or more in 10/16.
● WBA won their last two games before playing Leicester City, scoring eight goals and conceding 2.
● Their last three EPL games have seen over 2.5 goals.
Team news:
● Branislav Ivanovic and Robert Snodgrass remain the only absentees for West Brom, whose hopes of survival were dealt a potentially devastating blow by Leicester in midweek.
● The Baggies had been in good form prior to the 3-0 defeat on Thursday and know that anything short of five wins from their remaining six games will surely be curtains.
● Sam Allardyce may make a few changes after a short turnaround for his side, with Semi Ajayi and Hal Robson-Kanu among those waiting in the wings.
Referee: Stuart Attwell
● Referee Stuart Attwell has the second highest cpg average in EPL – 3.74pg
● Has officiated Villa twice this season and showed them at least a card in both – gave them 3 vs. Fulham.
Analysis
My first pick is for Aston Villa to receive 20+ booking points in total. I think this is somewhat overpriced considering the numbers behind the research and the fact that it’s only really West Brom with anything to play for. Of course, it’s a derby and bragging rights are at stake, but a win would simply mean so much more for The Baggies.
Allardyce’s side were dreadful against Leicester during the week. However, prior to that game they looked to have drastically improved and were playing some football that’s rarely seen from Big Sam sides.
This bet landed in the reverse fixture with Martin Atkinson referee who has just a 2.39 seasonal average. Yet here we have a ref with a high card count and a game where there is even more on the line. I think evens is too big, i’d have it closer to 20/23 and so i believe this bet offers some good value.
Secondly, I'm going for Villa to give away 11 or more free kicks. As i previously mentioned, West Brom were playing well before the game against Leicester. Let's be honest, Villa without Grealish are nowhere near the level of The Foxes and as such i think we’ll see a much improved performance from West Brom.
The Villans have given away 11 or more free kicks in 23/31 games this season as well as in 12/15 at home. I think West Brom will be going for this one and force Villa into committing some needless tackles as many other sides have done against The Baggies of late; ten of their last 11 opponents have committed at least 11 fouls against them.
With every game being a massive one for The Baggies, with Villa still missing Grealish and also knowing they’re essentially going through the motions until the season draws to a close, i’d expect West Brom to cause them problems and draw a few bad challenges.
Bets Bets
Aston Villa vs West Brom – Aston Villa Over 1.5 Team Cards (1/1 Bet365)
Aston Villa vs West Brom – Aston Villa to Commit 11+ Fouls (7/10 Unibet)
