NEW Year, same approach. Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) is back with three Premier League bets.
Man City v Sunderland | Thursday 15:00
With a betting market framed like this, it allows me to get involved with a market that's (so far) never let me down.
I've got a feeling Sunderland might not get hammered as the odds suggest in this match, so I'll back them at odds-against simply to score. Gus Poyet's side have a habit of raising their game against the bigger sides, and Man City have found that out to their cost in the past.
Since Man City have become a force in the Premier League (2011/12) they've failed to beat Sunderland five times out of seven in the Premier League. Incredibly The Black Cats have won three of those fixtures, including a massive odds win on New Years Day 2012.
And it's not just Man City who've suffered at the hands of Sunderland. Chelsea and Manchester United were beaten in the league last season and they managed to navigate their way to the Capital One Cup Final.
This season they've managed to draw with Chelsea, Man Utd, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton. There's much to be admired in that. After their disappointing last couple of results (losing to Hull and drawing with Aston Villa) I can see Sunderland typically raising their game here.
Coral are offering 23/20 on the Mackems scoring and that's tempting me. They've notched in 10 of their 19 league matches this season and scored against Man City in the reverse fixture four weeks ago.
Newcastle v Burnley | Thursday 15:00
It looks like Alan Pardew is on his way out at Newcastle. Who on earth would have predicted that as we watched their 3-2 win against Everton on Sunday? Certainly not me. Best of luck to the guy. I thought he did a superb job in the North East.
But where does this leave Newcastle? In my book they've lost a quality manager and it may be hard for them to recruit better. In the short-term they face Burnley with John Carver and Steve Stone at the helm and Pardew's exit could motivate or deflate the players.
I'm always loathe to get involved with games involving new managerial set-ups but I've got so much respect for Burnley at the moment I need to get with them in this match.
What an inspiring guy Sean Dyche is! I wish he was my boss. The way his players dug in and salvaged a point against Man City was an absolute credit to him. I can imagine the Burnley players will be buzzing at the moment and will be desperate to get back on the pitch.
Bet365 are as big as 17/4 for the Clarets to win at St James Park. I'll leave that alone but instead side with them in the Handicap market. Boylesports offer Burnley +1 at 23/20 and that's good enough for me. The Clarets have lost just three of their last nine fixtures and will no doubt expect to get something here.
QPR v Swansea | Thursday 15:00
Yawn! Here we go again. Let's all back QPR. To be honest I was gutted and disappointed that they failed to beat Crystal Palace on Sunday. I hope it's not the start of a malaise with regard to their Loftus Road form.
On New Years Day they face Swansea and the bookmakers have once again gone over the top with the odds on the R's. BetVictor go 2/1 on a home win with Swansea at 8/5. Let's put that into perspective…
QPR are 8th in the Home Table with 18 points out of 30 won, while Swansea are 16th in the Away Table with eight points out of 27 accrued. Yet you can back QPR at 2/1!
Yes of course, Swansea are six places and 10 points ahead of Harry Redknapp's side in the overall table, but QPR's home form is so consistent that it should be factored more into the odds in my opinion. Remember it's mid-October since they lost at Loftus Road.
Rather than back QPR to win again I'll mix it up a wee bit and back them off 0 on the Asian Handicap at 15/13 with BetVictor. A draw means I'll get my cash back rather than losing out.
Best Bets
Man City v Sunderland – Sunderland to score Over 0.5 Goals (23/20 Coral)
Newcastle v Burnley – Burnley +1 (23/20 Boylesports)
QPR v Swansea – QPR 0 Asian Handicap (15/13 BetVictor)
