VALUE-HUNTER Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Saturday's Premier League contests.
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea | Saturday 19th February 2022, 15:00
My first couple of bets this weekend take place at Selhurst Park, where Crystal Palace take on Chelsea.
It feels like Palace have had a better season than five wins from 24 games suggests, with the problem for Patrick Vieira’s side being that they’ve drawn too many matches. The Eagles have looked good under the Frenchman, however, and I expect them to run Chelsea close this weekend.
Palace victories include a 2-0 win at The Etihad over Manchester City and a 3-0 win at home to Spurs, while they also scored twice against Arsenal and ran Liverpool a lot closer than a 3-1 defeat suggests.
The Eagles have also scored in each of their last 11 home games and I feel like they have the attacking prowess to find the net against Chelsea.
Their opponents are returning from Abu Dhabi, where they won the Club World Cup, but they are a bit out of practice where domestic football is concerned. Chelsea last played in the league on 23rd January and victory over Tottenham that day was just their second in their last eight matches in the top flight.
Chelsea conceded in six of those matches but where they seemed impregnable at the back at the start of the season now they look a lot more vulnerable. Thomas Tuchel’s side have conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches and both teams to score has landed in nine of those games.
Given Palace’s attacking prowess – and goalscoring record at home – I think all the recent data suggests that the 21/20 available with Coral on both teams finding the net is excellent value.
Elsewhere in this game, I like the look of Joel Ward getting booked at 9/2 with Unibet. Palace’s right back is no stranger to a referee’s notebook, with six yellow cards in 23 matches this season. Moreover, the man in the middle this weekend – David Coote – isn’t shy when it comes to brandishing cards. Coote has waved 62 yellow cards and two reds in just 14 Premier League matches this season.
Several Palace players are priced far less favourably despite a cleaner record and the 9/2 William Hill are offering is real value, with the 10/3 on offer with several other bookmakers is a more accurate reflection of the probability of Ward receiving a card.
Southampton vs Everton | Saturday 19th February 2022, 15:00
Despite having six games to choose from, I found it harder than usual to find a goalscorer bet of value. There were a few players – Olly Watkins and Dominic Calvert-Lewin to name but two – who I considered but I have eventually decided to go with Anthony Gordon at 19/4 to score for Everton against Southampton.
Gordon scored for The Toffees in a 3-0 win last weekend and he looks far more threatening under the tutelage of Frank Lampard than he did under Rafa Benitez. Everton have scored eight times in three matches under Lampard and I expect their goal volumes to be significantly higher than they were when Benitez was at the helm.
Gordon has certainly looked like a big attacking threat during those matches and with little else appealing, I am happy to have a few pennies on him finding the net at St Mary’s.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea – Both Teams To Score (21/20 Coral)
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea – Joel Ward to be booked (9/2 William Hill)
Southampton vs Everton – Anthony Gordon to score anytime (19/4 Unibet)
