VALUE-HUNTER Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Saturday's Premier League contests.
Southampton vs Brighton | Saturday 4th December 2021, 15:00
With just three Saturday 3pm games available, it was a little harder than usual to find value in the anytime goalscorer market, especially as – with the exception of Liverpool – the sides in action have had problems in front of goal recently.
After much review, however, I have decided to go for Neal Maupay at 11/5 with Bet365. Maupay has scored in five of his 13 appearances in the Premier League, including a stunner against West Ham in midweek.
Maupay did have his troubles in front of goal last season – scoring just eight when his expected total was 14 but the stats from this season and last suggest that he is by far the most likely player to score in this encounter and the 11/5 Bet365 are offering on him netting is big enough for me to get involved.
Newcastle vs Burnley | Saturday 4th December 2021, 15:00
With these two sides in the relegation zone, the traditional view is that you would see a tight match settled by a single goal victory to either side. However, Newcastle and new manager Eddie Howe, defy regular convention, so I am going to side with goals at St James’ Park.
Over 2.5 goals is 10/11 with Bet365, which seems perfectly acceptable to me given Howe’s record. His two home matches to date have seen a 3-3 draw with Brentford (whose matches rarely see many goals) and a 1-1 draw with Norwich. I am not reading too much in to the latter game as Newcastle had a player sent off in the first 10 minutes, which clearly reduced their attacking potential.
I had a quick look at Howe’s three most recent seasons and saw that 34 of his 57 Premier League home matches as Bournemouth boss saw over 2.5 goals oblige. That’s a 60% strike rate and suggests that 10/11 on such a bet is good value.
Over 2.5 goals has obliged in just six of Burnley’s 13 league games this season but their goals total (34 in 13 matches) is slightly less than the performance data suggests. With this in mind, I am happy to take 10/11 on over 2.5 goals in this one.
Staying with this game, I must say I was delighted to see the appointment of Paul Tierney as referee here. Tierney brandished seven cards in what didn’t appear to be a particularly fiery Merseyside derby on Wednesday night and he now averages over four cards a game this season.
Burnley have a few regular offenders in terms of picking up cards so it feels like the ideal game to have Tierney officiating. James Tarkowski missed Burnley’s game at Wolves in midweek having already managed five yellow cards in his first 12 games.
With Newcastle having the pace of Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximum in attack, I think he will be exposed on a few occasions and I think the 3/1 Boylesports are offering on Tarkowski entering Tierney’s notebook is too big to ignore.
Best Bets
Southampton vs Brighton – Neal Maupay to score anytime (11/5 Bet365)
Newcastle vs Burnley – Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)
Newcastle vs Burnley – James Tarkowski to be booked (3/1 Boylesports)
