VALUE-HUNTER Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Saturday's 3pm Premier League kick-offs.
Norwich vs Wolves | Saturday 27th November 2021, 15:00
With only three Saturday 3pm games to choose from, I thought it would be difficult to find value this weekend but actually there is a bet I like in each of the afternoon matches.
The first is at Carrow Road, where new Norwich boss Dean Smith will be hoping to follow up victory in his opening match against Southampton, with one against Wolves.
Norwich showed great character to come from behind to beat The Saints and that is not something that could always be said for them under Daniel Farke (at this level at least). Hopefully that bodes well for The Canaries in what is likely to be a tough campaign still.
Whether they can win here is certainly debateable, but I do like Even money quotes on both sides to score. Dean Smith has managed 12 matches in the Premier League this season and seven of these have seen both sides oblige.
Wolves, meanwhile, have seen four of their last six matches also end with both teams scoring. Their overall record of 24 combined goals (12 for and 12 against) suggests that they are a very similar side to the one we saw under Nuno, but I don’t think that’s the case and the underlying data suggests they should have scored four more and conceded three more in that sample.
Overall, Evens on both sides scoring looks too big to me and I’ll take that price with Unibet.
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa | Saturday 27th November 2021, 15:00
This column has become a bit of a Conor Gallagher fanzine (and not just because of his impressive spell at West Brom last season).
Gallagher is certainly all-action and the fact that he is near the top of both foul stats and shots stats is the reason why I look to him in both the card and goalscorer markets.
On this occasion, it is the 4/1 Bet365 are offering on the midfielder to find the net that takes my fancy. Gallagher has scored four in 11 matches so far this term, but the underlying data shows you that this is not an overperformance (xG is 4.45).
Only 10 Premier League players (and no one at Palace) has more shots on target than Gallagher’s 11 and he has had 24 shots in total, showing that it is not a case that he is going through a phase of being overly accurate.
Aston Villa enjoyed a 2-0 victory over Brighton last week and while that scoreline flattered them, they did limit their opponents to just six shots and an expected goals total of 0.2. I don’t doubt that Villa will be a more solid outfit under Steven Gerrard than they were Dean Smith, but Brighton have struggled to create chances for most of this season, so I won’t read too much in to one result.
Even if Palace were only in for one goal, I believe there is more than a 20% chance Gallagher gets that, so the 4/1 on offer on him scoring is excellent value.
Liverpool vs Southampton | Saturday 27th November 2021, 15:00
My final bet comes from Anfield, where is it sure to be a tough afternoon for Southampton. The bet I like here is for Mohammed Salisu to be booked.
The Ghanian has been quite impressive this season, but his 18 fouls are exceeded by only six players this season. He has received four bookings in 11 matches and given that he is expected to be in for a busy afternoon, I am more than happy to take the 7/2 with Skybet on him picking up a booking.
Referee Andre Marriner is only actually averaging 2.3 cards per game this season, but his career average is around 3.2 so hopefully we see some regression to the mean here.
Best Bets
Norwich vs Wolves – Both Teams To Score (1/1 Unibet)
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa – Conor Gallagher to score anytime against Aston Villa (4/1 Bet365)
Liverpool vs Southampton – Mohammed Salisu to be booked against Liverpool (7/2 Skybet)
