VALUE-HUNTER Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Saturday's 3pm Premier League kick-offs.
Brentford vs Norwich | Saturday 6th November 2021, 15:00
With just three 3pm games this Saturday it is obviously harder to find value, but there are a couple of bets I like at the Brentford Community Stadium.
The first is for the home side to win and under 2.5 goals to be scored. I backed the Bees to avoid defeat at Burnley last week but surprisingly – and for the first time this season – the West London outfit were comfortably outplayed.
Given that they’ve already faced Arsenal, West Ham, Chelsea, Leicester and Liverpool this season, that is some achievement, but also suggests that such an underperformance is unlikely to happen again.
The Bees have only won one of their five home games this term but have created more chances than their opponents in each of those matches (won the xG), which is impressive given that they’ve already faced the top two in the table.
Two of their three wins this season have seen under 2.5 goals scored and given that they are facing a Norwich team who have just three goals from ten games to their name, I like the look of the 13/5 Bet365 are offering on Brentford to win and under 2.5 goals to be scored. The Bees have managed just 12 goals in 10 matches themselves, so I don’t expect them to score a hatful but believe a 1-0 or 2-0 home win is likely.
To be booked
Unfortunately none of the whistlers you want when it comes to cards market are on show this weekend but I am happy to back a player who has earned me a profit before and that man is Christian Norgaard.
The Danish midfielder has three bookings from 10 Premier League matches and his 17 fouls are bettered by only six players. I did consider his teammate Frank Onyeka in this market but am less certain that the latter will start.
Norgaard is 3/1 with William Hill to see a card and I would be delighted if referee Jarred Gillett could continue his seven yellow cards per game average in the Premier League. Unfortunately that average is based off one match and his career average of 3.34 cards per game is fairly standard.
Still, Brentford games tend to be quite niggly and I expect a few cards in a low-scoring home victory and am hopeful that Norgaard is one of the names in Gillett’s notebook.
To score
Pleasingly Conor Gallagher obliged in the ‘to be shown a card’ market last week but the England under-21 midfielder also found the net in an excellent victory for his Crystal Palace side.
Palace have been impressive this season and 12 points from 10 games is a more than acceptable return given that they’ve already travelled to Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea.
While The Eagles have not been swashbuckling, they have looked more of an attacking threat than they did under Roy Hodgson and Gallagher has played a huge part in that. He has three goals so far this season but his xG actually suggests he could have scored more, while he tops the Palace charts in terms of shots (21) and shots on target (nine).
Wolves are not a pushover but I thought a fairly limited Everton side created plenty last weekend and am confident that Palace will find the net at least once. Given that Gallagher has been the home sides biggest threat to date this season, the 9/2 Bet365 are offering on him finding the net seems far too big.
Best Bets
Brentford vs Norwich – Brentford to win and Under 2.5 Goals (13/5 Bet365)
Brentford vs Norwich – Christian Norgaard to be booked (3/1 William Hill)
Brentford vs Norwich – Conor Gallagher to score (9/2 Bet365)
