Value hunter Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from this afternoon's 3pm Premier League kick-offs.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle | Saturday 23rd October 2021. 15:00
The Graeme Jones era at Newcastle is upon us, with the Gateshead-born coach having recovered from his upset at seeing former boss Steve Bruce relieved of his duties in midweek.
Quite what this short reign looks like is unclear, which makes me less certain of my first bet than I would be if Bruce was still at the helm.
The reason being is that BTTS has landed in seven of Newcastle’s eight league matches this term, with their games currently averaging over 3.6 goals. Obviously that is likely to unsustainable over the course of 38 matches but the simple truth is that they are creating a fair amount of chances but conceding far more.
Crystal Palace have been impressive under Patrick Vieira and if they had not conceded a couple of stoppage-time levellers, The Eagles would be pushing for a top half spot. As it is they find themselves 14th but I think the general view is that while many expected them to struggle, they now look like a very competitive Premier League side and it would be a surprise if they were dragged in to a relegation dogfight.
Palace have also had a tough start to the season on paper. They’ve already been to Anfield, Stamford Bridge and The Emirates and they’ve faced Tottenham, Brentford, Leicester and Brighton at home, none of whom you expect to struggle this season.
They failed to score in three games this season – at Anfield, Stamford Bridge and at home to Brentford, but I think we would all agree that those side have better defences than Newcastle.
Odsonne Eduoard and Christian Benteke will be a threat for most backlines and given that 11 of the 16 games these two sides have played this season have seen both sides score, I am happy to take the 3/4 with Bet365 on BTTS.
Elsewhere in this encounter, I like the look of Conor Gallagher to be carded. The Palace midfielder has committed the third most fouls in the Premier League this season – 16 – and has actually only played seven matches. He has already received two cautions, which added to his 11 in 30 matches for West Brom last season, combine for 13 cards in 37 matches. That suggests that odds of 2/1 on him receiving a card would be more than fair, yet we are able to get 3/1 with Bet365. Referee Darren England has brandished 13 cards in two matches this term so he won’t be shy in getting his notebook out when Gallagher commits an offence.
Leeds vs Wolves | Saturday 23rd October 2021. 15:00
I really want to get with Chris Wood in the goalscorer market. The Burnley marksman only has one goal so far, but his performance data suggests he should have three and he is generally reliable for double figures in a Premier League season.
Therefore, I am back to the trusted Brazilian, Raphinha. He missed out for Leeds last week but is going to be fit for this encounter and the fact that he has three Premier League goals in seven appearances this season – and two in three matches for his national side this year – gives me confidence that this talent will start to put up the numbers that suggest that 7/2 on him to score is a foolish price from the bookmakers.
Leeds opponents, Wolves, have only conceded eight goals this season and I am not expecting a goal glut here, but I do think that Raphinha is going to have a golden year and fully expect him to hit double figures. With that in mind, I am more than happy to take the 7/2 with Paddy Power on him obliging at Elland Road on Saturday afternoon.
Best Bets
BTTS – Crystal Palace vs Newcastle (3/4 Bet365)
Conor Gallagher to be booked (3/1 Bet365)
Raphinha to score – Leeds vs Wolves (7/2 Paddy Power)
